These are some of the questions china.org.cn asked of Prof. Li Shaoxian, an expert in the Middle East and a senior researcher in the Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

CHINA.ORG.CN: On August 13, Israeli troops invaded the town of Palestinian area of Jenin and then massed outside a Palestinian city near Bethlehem. This action happened on the heels of Israel’s occupation of Orient House on August 10, the Palestinian headquarters on the East Jerusalem. What is Israel’s intention?

Li: In fact, in its most recent action Israel wanted to achieve two things:

First, to retaliate for the suicide bombing a day ago (August 12) in a café in Haifa. After Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon took office, he insisted on a traditional hard-line policy. That is, Israel will retaliate against any demonstrations or terroist actions against Israel no matter the reason. What’s more, guided by his stubborn policy of “no talks before cease-fire,” Sharon refused to talk with Yasser Arafat.

Therefore, the situation is getting worse and worse with more and more violence. Each side makes it harder for the other side. Israel has been busy launching a large-scale retaliation for the suicide bombing. Faced with the tragedy in Haifa, Sharon had to do something, and could not think of any better way except to order Israeli troops to attack Jenin because this city is the main camp for Palestinian terrorists.

Second, to display force and put pressure on Palestine. Israel occupied Jenin within one hour and then withdrew three hours later, which sent the message to Palestine that Israel can seize the West Bank whenever it wants. However, Sharon himself understands clearly that this is the final step unless he is forced into a corner. Therefore, the Israeli military was more symbolic than anything else.

CHINA.ORG.CN: What will the Palestinian reaction be to Israel’s latest actions? Will this finally lead Arafat to learn toward “Hamas”?

Li: Israel’s action will certainly trigger a new vicious circle of violence. In the past 11 months we have witnessed a whirlwind of Arab-Israeli violence of “retaliation and counter-retaliation.” It is a characteristic of the Israeli government to retaliate mercilessly to whatever kinds of terrorism directed toward Israel, but especially when the right-wing is in power. But Israel’s retaliation does not bring it peace; on the contrary, it only accelerates Palestinian terrorism in responding to the Israeli attacks.

The situation is becoming worse and worse. It is reported that people rushed into the streets to celebrate the success of the bombing when the news of the Haifa bombing came to Palestine’s Camp. Those Palestinians embraced each other, expressed their joy with a feast. The bomber was honored as hero. This is in sharp contrast with deep sorrow on the Israeli side.

Now it is the time for Israeli government to rethink its hawkish policy. Intensified retaliation not only stimulates Palestine’s nationalism, but also narrows the room for maneuvering by the moderate party represented by Arafat. Under these circumstances, Arafat has difficulty doing anything.

CHINA.ORG.CN: That being the case, will this lead to a new war?

Li: Although the situation in the Middle East is alarming, it will not start a war. The main reasons are:

First, both the international community and international environment will not allow another Middle East war to break out. Peace and development is still the theme of today’s world. No big power wants to see a new war between Arab and Israel in this area so crucial to oil production.

Second, war is not in line with the interests of several countries in the Middle East. None of the Israelis (including Sharon himself) wants war, because war would again put the very existence of the country in danger; Yasser Afrafat, as well, does not want war, because war would turn his 10 years peace efforts into nothing; Egypt and Syria, the other two big powers in Middle East, do not want war either. The president of Egypt Hosni Mubarak firmly rejected the possibility of war in an interview with Israeli TV. Bashar al-Assad, the new president of Syria, has put most his attention on domestic affairs.

Third, the countries and extremists who do want to see war have neither the capablities or means for war.

CHINA.ORG.CN: What about the response of the international community to the current situation in Middle East?

Li: The international community generally is worried about the situation in Middle East, but different views have been expressed. Subtle changes are happening in Arab countries. In a recent article, an ambassador to England from Saudi Arabia, a moderate country, even talked up the possibility of war in views international community suspected as not being his alone. Anti-Israel feelings among Arab peoples are escalating. This is the greatest loss for Israel in the prolonged conflict.

The US is very anxious about the current Middle East situation. President George W. Bush has called on Israel to exercise restraint while urging Palestinian leader Arafat to do all he can to halt terrorism. A special committee, headed by the former US Senator George Mitchell, has been sent to help get talks going. The US probably will intensify its intervention into the conflict.

Echoes from Russia and European Union cannot provide any substantial help.

CHINA.ORG.CN: Is there any way that can be found to end the conflict and resume peace? What efforts can the international community do to help the peace process?

Li: Both sides should sit down and talk using as a basis the “confidence-building measures” cited in the Mitchell report as well as the ceasefire plan made in June. Shimon Peres, Israel foreign minister and the government’s leading dove, was fully aware that the only way to a ceasefire is for leaders to get together and talk. Israeli’s reprisals can only lead to more conflicts. It seems that Peres’s suggestion may give a gleam of hope for carrying out the ceasefire agreement of June.

Of course, both sides want successful peace talks, the Israelis must be restrained and Palestinians must strive to exercise control and curb terrorism. Meantime, the US should intensify its efforts to help bring about successful peace talks.

(China.org.cn 08/17/2001)