Middle East transforming without advent of religious extremism
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In March, political unrest in the Middle East entered its third month. Judging by the scale of the demonstrations, states throughout the region will experience varying degrees of internal transition during this wave of uprisings. How far the changes ultimately go remains to be seen.
In many ways, the Egyptian and Tunisian political crises are far from being true "revolutions" as some in the media have proclaimed. As we've seen, the majority of protests have been against certain political leaders or leaders' political tactics as opposed to the political systems themselves. Thus, the demonstrations seem more like expressions of public discontent rather than movements with a clear leadership structure and organized political goals.
However, the political implications of the protests should not be underestimated. Besides demanding better living conditions, the protesters also have proposed political change. Egyptians requested modification of their constitution, and Tunisians demanded government reform. It should not be expected that one or two months of unrest will succeed in bringing these changes, though it is likely they will be addressed as these governments transform. Nonetheless, regime change does not necessarily mean that future governments will be more capable of addressing their constituents' economic and social problems.
In monarchies like Bahrain and Jordan, there is some predictability as to how instability will ultimately be settled. The contributions of the Royal families in these countries have long been a source of legitimacy for the monarchs; however, they have not been immune to the spread of the crisis. Bahrain's royal family enjoys the strong support of its minority Sunni population, but it has mishandled treatment of its Shiite majority, who have protested their lack of political representation and economic inequality. To pacify their anger, the Bahrain monarchy will have to change its policies. Jordan's monarchy enjoys a similar legitimacy with East Bank Jordanians who see the regime as their defense against a growing Palestinian majority. To maintain order, King Abdullah will have to balance the needs of those living on the other side of the social and economic gap.
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