With the United States' military forces amassing in the Gulf region, the shadow of an imminent war is looming large in the Mideast. US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has ordered two more aircraft carrier battle groups, the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Theodore Roosevelt, to be deployed in the Gulf region, joining two groups already positioned within striking distance of Iraq.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell, after United Nations arms inspectors submitted key reports to the Security Council this week after their two-month inspections, continued to reprimand Iraq fordeceiving the world over disarming itself, and warned "time was running out" for the country.

It is widely believed that with this war the United States is attempting not only to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime but end many long-existing problems in the Mideast. By overpowering Iraq, one of the US-called "axis of evil", the United States hopes to weed out the potential threat of mass destructive weapons in the Middle East, strike a blow to the radical Arab forces against Israel, and increase control of the Gulf region's oil resources.

However, as Li Guofu, a Middle East expert from the China Institute of International Studies, and many other researchers point out, no matter what intentions the United States harbors, a military action against Iraq with no mandate from the United Nations will bring nothing but turbulence to Iraq, its neighbors and the Middle East region at large. For Iraq, the war will reshuffle its political structure and breed possible power struggles. According to Tang Zhichao, a researcher from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the United States will find it hard to form a powerful central government in post-war Iraq since the Kurds in the north will clamor for more autonomy while the majority Shiite Muslims will endeavor to change the previous dominance of the minority Sunni Muslims.

Besides, Tang warns, a pro-America government is likely to elicit violence from Iraq's extremist forces or Saddam's loyalists.

For nations bordering Iraq like Iran and Syria, confronted with the strong military presence of the United States and political pressure from a pro-America Iraqi government, Li Guofu believes they will feel increasingly in danger. In Iran in particular, already hair-trigger sensitive at the "axis of evil" label, anti-US forces will become even more radical. Syria, a close economic partner of Iraq and a strong protester at US military actions, will also feel under pressure.

Turkey, fearful of a bid for independence by its southeastern Kurds inspired and coordinated by the Kurds in northern Iraq, will possibly have to resort to force to maintain unification.

After war breaks out, fleeing Iraqi refugees will also pose a threat to neighboring nations' economic and social stability.

In addition, Li said that when the war ends, the United States could well press other Gulf countries with monarchies to implementpolitical and social reforms and adapt to its values and social system. The pressure from both outside and inside would affect their political stability. If the United States took control of Iraq, its oil reliance on other Gulf countries would decrease, bolstering its zeal for their reforms, analysts say.

As far as the whole Middle East region is concerned, the United States' continued military presence in the Gulf region against Saddam Hussein's regime will arouse Arab bitterness or even extremism by radical forces.

If Saddam's forces collapsed, Israel would stand in an even more advantageous position compared with Palestine. Analysts worry that under such circumstances, once the United States continues its nepotistic policy towards Israel, it is sure to incur strong hostility from Arabs, especially Palestinians.

The United States has taken quite different attitudes towards nuclear development in Iraq and Israel, although they are both Middle East countries, says Shen Dingli, deputy director with the American studies center of Shanghai-based Fudan University.

Its dual standards and discriminatory behavior undermine its image and role in intervening in Middle East affairs, which will render its efforts to mediate in Arab-Israel conflicts rather unacceptable, Shen says.

Shen adds that the United States' strike against Iraq under the excuse of non-proliferation will not eliminate certain Middle East countries' interests in weapons of mass destruction; on the contrary, it will most probably spur them to obtain them as soon as possible, although in a more covert way, which will only accelerate the proliferation of such weapons in the region.

(Xinhua News Agency January 29, 2003)