A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told a Pentagon briefing that "a variety of intelligence sources" indicate that Saddam intends to "cause damage or destruction to their oil fields."

The official did not describe the nature of the intelligence information seen by the American military.

US military planners "have crafted strategies that will allow us to secure and protect those fields as rapidly as possible in order to then preserve those prior to destruction, as opposed to having to go in and clean up after," he said.

The official said preserving the oil fields would secure the single most important economic asset that Iraq will need in order to get back on its feet after Saddam and his government are gone. He said oil could provide Iraq with $20 billion to $30 billion in annual revenues.

"This is not about the US trying to gain advantage by taking these oil fields or to preserve its own oil industry," the official said. "It is solely and most importantly to preserve the capability of the Iraqi people to stand up very quickly after a Saddam regime and become a functioning, capable member of the economic community."

Iraq trails only Saudi Arabia in terms of oil reserves.

Analysts said key oil fields the U.S. military could intend to protect are the Kirkuk field in the north and the Rumalia field in the south, which combined produce about 1.9 million barrels of oil a day, about two-thirds of total output.

The official said that Saddam's forces set fire to 730 of Kuwait's approximately 1,000 oil wells as they retreated during the Gulf War after seizing Kuwait the previous year, causing a monumental economic, health and environmental disaster. The official said Iraq has about 1,500 oil well heads, roughly 1,000 in southern Iraq and roughly 500 in the north.

"We think that he has a potential to double that disaster from Kuwait," the official said.

He noted Iraq deliberately released about 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf in 1991, and said Saddam could do the same thing again this time with the potential for even more oil fouling the coast and threatening water desalinization plants.

'DESTROY EVERYTHING'

Asked whether the United States believes Saddam might destroy refineries, pipelines and other important elements of the Iraqi oil infrastructure, he said, "We have a concern that he will try to destroy everything ... I think there is good reason to believe that he'd be desperate or unstable enough to make those decisions."

The official said that "it cost Kuwait and the coalition partners over $20 billion to restore oil infrastructure that was destroyed by Saddam during the Gulf War. And it's believed that it would cost us ... $30 (billion) to $50 billion to repair and reconstruct the Iraqi oil infrastructure" if Iraq sabotages its own oil fields.

He cited indications that Saddam's forces already have begun the process of planning for destroying Iraqi oil wells.

"There are a number of indications through reliable intelligence sources that those activities have been planned and, in some cases, that they may have ... begun," he said.

"We have seen military movement in both the northern and southern oil fields that indicate to us that there is a focus on those fields."

But he said it was difficult even with satellite surveillance technology to see something like the wiring of an oil well with explosives. "So, to be precise, I'd say I don't have firm evidence, but I have a large number of reliable sources that tell me that certainly there is a capability and that there is an intent," the official added.

The U.S. military has "focused a great deal of effort in the planning aspect" on protecting the oil fields, he said.

"There are special operations forces that can be used; there are conventional forces that can be used; very mobile forces that can be put in a variety of different ways."

The official said destroying the oil fields would not greatly hinder any invasion force, and said such an act would represent "an act of terrorism" against Iraq's people.

The United States is assembling a large military force in the Gulf region for a possible war with Iraq. President Bush has said the United States will lead a coalition of nations to disarm Iraq by force is Saddam fails to heed UN resolutions that he give up any weapons of mass destruction.

(China Daily January 25, 2003)