Hezbollah 'clumsy' in blaming Israel for Hariri assassination
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Effects of Arab rapprochement
Shehadi does not buy into the claims of some Israelis that Hezbollah has major influence over the official Lebanese Army, but he does think that last week's incident suggests a toughening of Lebanon's stance towards Israel.
"It's the first time ever that the Lebanese Army has engaged with the Israeli army to protect its border," he said.
The shooting occurred just days after Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and Syrian President Bahsar al-Assad put aside some of their personal and national differences and visited Lebanon to promote stability in the state. Likewise, Qatari ruler Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani visited Lebanon a week ago.
Shehadi sees a growing tide of rapprochement within the Arab world, with the moderates losing some of their influence. In his opinion this change stems from the Gaza fighting of some 19 months ago and the subsequent failure of the Israelis to successfully persuade the Arab world that it is serious about the peace process.
"(As a result,) there is definitely a political shift in the whole state of Lebanon towards a confrontational position with Israel," said Shehadi.
The Lebanese firing on Israeli soldiers is likely a reflection of that movement, he suggests.
Nerves on display
Whether that analysis is correct or not, it is clear to all that there is a sense of "nervousness," as Steinberg describes it, on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
That tension was thrown into sharp relief once again on Saturday when Israel fired warning shots in the direction of a Lebanese fishing vessel. The Israel Defense Forces said the boat wandered out of permitted fishing waters into a closed zone, believed to be near to the border.
Steinberg maintains that in the wake of last week's deadly incident "Israel's not going to take any chances and I think we'll see that for quite a long period of time," he said.
Israel will deal with any threat that comes from Lebanon "quickly" and "quite lethally," he continued.
While politicians and generals on both sides of the frontier have been making noises ever since the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, the determining factor ahead of any confrontation is the facts on the ground.
"The Lebanese shot at Israel for trimming a tree, so that means both sides will be observing the border by the inch," said Shehadi.
As a result, the United Nations force in southern Lebanon is having to be even more vigilant than normal to try to ensure that itchy fingers do not pull too easily on the triggers they touch.
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