Japan's upper house election no longer one horse race
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The DPJ alone needs at least 60 seats to take an outright majority, allowing them to pass bills without the approval of cumbersome coalition partners, but the good money would be on the ruling coalition looking to secure at least 56 of the 121 seats to be contested to keep a majority in the upper house -- and at a minimum maintain the party's current 54 seats.
On the other side of the fence, LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki began outlining his party's manifesto back in April.
Tanigaki, who replaced ex-Prime Minister Taro Aso as the leader of the opposition last year, failed to go into numerical detail on tax reform in recent discussions, but promised to reverse the deflationary economic trend and kick-start a revival.
He failed to make any real statement on the issue of relocating U.S. military bases, promising only to steadily proceed with the existing realignment of U.S. forces plan, suggesting that they would just wait and see how the DPJ would play it -- they played it awfully.
Tanigaki stated at a recent press conference that he wants Japan to be the world leader in public safety, education and manufacturing and that the LDP would create new jobs by strengthening international competitiveness and helping local communities get back on their feet.
As a reaction to Kan's comments on tax, Tanigaki said that he would not let the LDP become embroiled in interparty talks on the subject until the DPJ leader renounced his party's manifesto from the previous year.
In the end though it is a numbers game and the DPJ will be hoping that the axing of Hatoyama and 'Shadow Shogun' Ichiro Ozawa will display a willingness to start afresh and garner voter support on a promise of clean politics. However, as issues of money scandals have already surfaced in Kan's embryonic camp, promises of "clean politics" has become a dirty pledge.
The LDP will continue to focus on the trail of broken promises that saw Yukio Hatoyama become the fourth Japanese Prime Minister in a row to spend less than a year in office -- promises that will continue to haunt the DPJ as they seek to consolidate power in the upper house.
As the pre-election sniping and undermining escalates, Kan and Tanigaki will both need a united front from their parties. Neither man can afford the infighting and factionalism that often typify the build up to house elections in this country.
"Kan will have to steer attention away from assessments of the Hatoyama administration and concentrate on more realistic policy making and making this clearer to the public," McLellan said, adding "it remains to be seen however if the voters are willing to be persuaded, or if they have simply had enough."
Political commentators are saying that the LDP and a number of smaller parties such as Your Party, Sunrise Party of Japan, New Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party, may be looking to join forces in discrediting the DPJ in the eyes of the public, over past issues that have plagued the party.
Anti-DPJ parties will jointly be looking to prevent the ruling party securing an upper house majority by they themselves collectively winning 66 seats.
However, to avoid potential policy deadlocks, if the DPJ fail to win a majority on July 11, pundits suggest the DPJ will likely seek to broaden its alliance with other smaller parties.
Either which way, support rate for Kan's cabinet is falling and what was until recently looking at being a one-horse race for the upper house, is turning into a veritable political skirmish, with Tanigaki so confident the LDP will win a majority, he has staked his job on it.
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