Iraq's power transition not easy amid tight vote racing of rivals
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Rejected by electoral commission officials, the calls for vote recount by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani foreshow what a possible difficult process the nation's power transition will be in the near future.
The latest results based on 92 percent of the nationwide votes show that former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's Iraqia List bloc leads rival Maliki's State of Law coalition by nearly 8,000 votes. The incumbent prime minister, who is seeking a second term, called for a vote recount Sunday as some blocs, including Maliki's own, cry foul in counting. With a similar tone, President Talabani subsequently demanded a recount in some provinces to ensure " integrity and justice".
The two major blocs of Maliki and Allawi have been in a tight racing ever since partial results have come out gradually with the progress of counting after the March 7 national poll. It was the second time for the secular Shiite Allawi's bloc to surpass that of Maliki in votes. The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a bloc made up of mainly Shiite religious groups, was in a third place in votes.
The number of votes does not mean the leading coalition will get the most seats in the new 325-seat national legislature, as the seats are allocated to the country's 18 provinces, with the capital Baghdad 70 seats, the most among the 18. Therefore, to win the most seats relies on how well the contesting blocs do in provinces. Also under the election formula, one bloc is unlikely to gain the majority of parliament seats and has to join with others to form a new government.
According to previous partial results, the State of Law led in six southern Shiite-dominated provinces and Baghdad, while the Iraqia List led in five western and northern provinces with a majority of Sunnis. The cross-sectarian Iraqia bloc includes such prominent Sunni Arabs as Vice President Tareq al Hashemi. The INA led in three southern provinces, and the Kurdish Alliance, with Talabani a key leader, led the three provinces of the Kurdish autonomous region.
Allawi, an interim prime minister of Iraq in 2004 and 2005, and the INA, are both eyeing the post of prime minister. In the current power map, the president is a Kurd, prime minister a Shiite and parliament speaker a Sunni.
Analysts believe the process of forming a new government will be tough with much bargaining among blocs and may even take months. The formation of the current government took four months after the December 2005 election.
Maliki, who has isolated himself from many of his former allies in this election, will do all what he can to keep the post. Otherwise, he may face blame from Shiites for the political split within the majority community in the country.
The Iraqia bloc has drawn great support from the Sunnis, who showed a strong turnout in voting in order to gain more political say. The minority group in the country has felt being politically marginalized after the downfall of Saddam Hussein's regime in the 2003 U.S.-led war.
Widely regarding Allawi as one of their major representatives, Sunnis may feel disenfranchised again if the Iraqia bloc fails to gain key powerful posts in the new political arena. In this case, the stability of the country remains uncertain due to fears of a possible return of sectarian violence.
The election is a key test of the national reconciliation and political process of the war-torn country. For the past few years, it has seen sectarian bloodshed in 2006 and 2007 and fragile security is still disrupted by various violent attacks.
Iraq has been struggling to maintain political stability, improve security and speed up reconstruction with newly-inked deals of developing its 10 large oil fields with foreign firms in the following years. To ensure all this, it needs an efficient, stable government and national unity.
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