Lessons of the Ukrainian presidential election
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On February 7 Viktor Yanukovych narrowly beat Prime Minister Tymoshenko in the second round of the Ukrainian presidential election. A number of conclusions can be drawn from the result.
Illusions in the "Orange Revolution" shattered
The 2004 presidential election swept Orange Camp leader Viktor Yushchenko to power on a wave of optimism and expectation. But his rule brought neither economic prosperity nor political stability. Since the "Orange Revolution," there have been two parliamentary elections and almost continuous governmental and parliamentary crises.
Yushchenko's popularity hit rock bottom as he took the blame for the political turmoil. He polled just 5.45 percent this time round – possibly a world record low for an incumbent president.
Political landscape changed
A fierce power struggle between Yushchenko, Yulia Tymoshenko and Yanukovych has been under way for several years. After Yushchenko's elimination in the first round of the election, Yanukovych could only manage a slender victory over Tymoshenko in the second round. This means both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko retain enormous political clout. Meanwhile the surprisingly strong showing of former Central Bank Governor Sergey Tigipko in the first round signals the possible rise of a new centrist force in Ukrainian politics.
Divide between east and west
As expected, Yanukovych received most votes in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, and Tymoshenko in the Ukrainian-speaking west. The country remains dangerously divided. Yanukovych will need to consider voters from western Ukraine if he is to avoid being seen as spokesman for the east and thereby stoking regional conflict.
Challenges facing Yanukovych
While it is highly unlikely that Tymoshenko will be able to stage a second Orange Revolution, Yanukovych faces tough challenges:
Reviving the economy
His top priority is to boost the economy. Compared with its neighbors, Ukraine's economy is in bad shape and was among the hardest hit by the global financial crisis. GDP dropped 14 percent in 2009 and had it not been for IMF assistance things would have been much worse.
Power struggles
Ukraine has not achieved political stability since independence, mainly as a result of internal power struggles, but also due to foreign interference.
The presidential election will not put an end to factional struggles. Yanukovych needs to take further measures to restore political stability. Only when some sort of political equilibrium is achieved will Ukraine be able to develop its economy and improve living standards.
But Yanukovych has promised early parliamentary elections which will mean a new round of political struggle and ongoing uncertainty.
Diplomatic challenges
The new president faces tough challenges on the diplomatic front. He needs to balance relations with Russia and the West. Although he is seen as pro-Russian, he is unlikely to steer a purely pro-Russian course in office. The differences between Ukraine and Russia are substantial and cannot be solved overnight, but Yanukovych's pro-Russian past will help improve ties.
But with Ukraine still mired in deep economic crisis, Yanukovych needs aid and support from the U.S. and must pay attention to improving relations with Washington.
Yanukovych says he intends to balance relations the EU and Russia. He hopes that developing relations with the EU will help boost economic development and push forward reform.
When Yushchenko was in power, he tried to fast-track Ukraine's accession to NATO. But opinion polls show that most Ukrainians oppose membership and Yanukovych is likely to stick to a pre-election promise to keep Ukraine out of NATO. But he will maintain a normal diplomatic relationship with the alliance.
He Wei is director and research fellow in Ukrainian studies at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
(The article was translated by Zhang Ming'ai)
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