World's pending questions in 2010
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As the world is entering a new year, people can predict upcoming hotspot issues by looking into current pending questions, which may lead the directions of the world development in year 2010.
G20's role
In June and November next year, the Group of Twenty (G20) is to hold summits respectively in Toronto, Canada, and Seoul, South Korea. Is it prepared to expand its influence to cover the fields of international politics and security?
The G20 accounts for 90 percent of the global GDP, 80 percent of the international trade volume, and two thirds of the world population. It was confirmed as the main platform for addressing world economic issues at the Pittsburgh summit in September in the United States.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has stated that not only economic issues, but those of energy, resources, climate change, foods and poverty, are to be discussed at future G20 summits. He believes that the G20 has become the center of the world system after the financial crisis, and is the supreme body of collaboration for sustainable and balanced growth.
Result of climate change talks
The UN climate change conference is to be held in Mexico in December 2010. Can it complete the tasks unfinished in Copenhagen?
After two weeks of arduous marathon negotiations, world leaders finally hatched the Copenhagen Accord, a non-binding political document which represents the latest consensus in the climate change talks.
The 2010 talks should concentrate on working out a definite legal term to clarify developed countries' obligation for their specific second-phase emission reduction targets according to the Kyoto Protocol. Moreover, the 2010 talks would face the job of adopting certain regulations for implementing the developed countries' promise to financially assist the developing countries in tackling the climate change.
US planned withdrawal from iraq
The United States has planned to withdraw all its combating troops from Iraq by the end of August 2010. However, the current severe security situation and unstable political situation in the Middle East state are challenging the U.S. plan.
Parliamentary elections to be held on March 7 will largely decide the situation in Iraq. However, the struggle among the Shiites, the Sunnis and the Kurds in the distribution of powers is an unpredictable element beyond the U.S. control.
US new strategy in Afghanistan
Year 2010 will be a crucial one for the United States' strenuous efforts for success in Afghanistan.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced his revised strategy in Afghanistan in December 2009. According to the strategy, 30,000 additional U.S. troops would be deployed to the war-plagued country in the first half of 2010 to wage a rapid repression of the Taliban and save the "deteriorating" situation.
However, foreign troops are facing uncertain surroundings in Afghanistan. Due to their unscrupulous military actions which often result in civilian fatalities, the Afghan public's antiforeign sentiment and discontent with the government have reached the highest level since the downfall of the Taliban regime in 2001.
Iran's nuclear issue
Will the international community boast wisdom and tactics to break the deadlock over the Iranian nuclear issue in the coming year?
In November 2009, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s request for Iran to stop constructing new uranium enrichment facilities was rejected by Iran. As for another IAEA proposal which asks Iran to ship most of its existing low-grade enriched uranium to Russia and France, where it would be processed into fuel rods with a purity of 20 percent, Iran has adopted an equivocal attitude.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said recently that Iran did not oppose exchanging nuclear fuels with the Western countries in Turkey. However, the mitigated stance still does not meet the IAEA's request.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatallah Seyyed Ali Khamnei stressed that his country would never give up nuclear right, nor do anything that satisfies enemies.
Actions by the United States seem inevitable in 2010, since the U.S. has warned of new sanctions if Iran does not accept the nuclear fuel exchange draft by the end of 2009.
Nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula
It is still unclear whether the six-party talks to end nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula will resume in 2010.
The main obstruction is disagreement between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States on who should take the first step. The DPRK insists a peaceful DPRK-U.S. relationship must be first established, while the U.S. says the DPRK should first abandon its nuclear programs.
However, both parties have recently shown a willingness to return to dialogue and coordination, in place of earlier confrontation.
The six-party negotiations, without doubt, are the best means to settle the nuclear standoff, and all six countries have expressed the wish to reopen the talks.
Analysts say all parties should focus on building a mechanism of permanent peace on the peninsula when talks resume.
Palestinian domestic disputes
Palestine will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2010. Many hope the elections will bring reconciliation among Palestine's domestic factions and lead to a restart in Palestine-Israel negotiations.
The elections previously were slated for Jan. 24, but were postponed to June due to disputes between Palestine's different parties.
Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, faces a growing electoral threat from Fatah, which has been gaining support among voters due to its anti-corruption and other reform policies. However, Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas' reluctance to stand in the elections has cast a cloud over the movement's prospects.
In the short run, no matter which side wins, the elections would help boost unification and settle disputes among the Palestinian people. In the long run, only a unified Palestinian government can restart the long-stalled Palestine-Israel peace talks.
US midterm elections
The United States will hold midterm elections in November 2010, to choose all House members, a third of its Senators, some governors and state legislatures.
The elections will be an acid test for the Obama government and the ruling Democratic Party, and can serve as a "weather vane" of U.S. political trends.
If the Democratic Party performs well, it will help Obama push forward his reform policies. Otherwise, the Obama administration will lose some momentum.
British general election
Britain will hold a general election before June 2010, with the governing Labour Party facing defeat by the Conservative Party.
The Labour Party has ruled the country since 1997, and more and more Britons hope to see a change to the country's political map.
A lawmakers' expenses scandal, the Iraq War and the War in Afghanistan have dented the ruling party's image. Opinion polls show the Conservatives lead Labour with a double-digit advantage.
Nigel Inkster, an expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said a Conservative Party government would adopt more practical foreign policies. Analysts say both will focus domestic policies on deficit cutting and employment boosting, if successful.
Japanese political situation
Japan will hold an election for its upper house in summer, 2010. The performance of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will affect Japan's political stability.
The DPJ secured a landslide in the lower house election in August, marking the first substantial transfer of power in Japan since World War II.
The approval rate for the Hatoyama Cabinet has been hurt by falsification of the DPJ's political fund reports and lack of progress in repositioning U.S. forces in Okinawa. But experts say the government's strong numerical lead over opposition parties means it is unlikely to be threatened in the short term.
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