2009: a year of cooperation and conflicts for China-US trade relations
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As the ballast and engine for overall bilateral relations, China-U.S. trade ties have witnessed intensive exchanges in 2009 amid soaring trade disputes.
Undeniably, though, the trade ties will encounter conflicts from time to time during the process of cooperation, analysts say, noting that trade expansion between the world's largest developed and developing country is in line with the interests of both sides, and even the whole world at large.
Significant of China-US trade relations
Amid the economic downturn in 2009, Chinese and American leaders made frequent contacts at both bilateral summits and international meetings. Dialogues on strategic and economic development were subsequently opened.
Following U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to China in November, the two countries issued a joint declaration saying "they are committed to building a positive, cooperative and comprehensive China-U.S. relationship for the 21st century, and will take concrete actions to steadily build a partnership to address common challenges. "
In the newly defined China-U.S. relationship, trade and economics bear strategic significance. Today, China and the U.S. are each other's second largest trade partner and their trade volume has increased by 130 times in the past 30 years.
"Currently, trade and economy have apparently become the ballast and major impetus in their relations," said Wang Yong, director of the Center of International Political Economy at Peking University.
The constantly changing definition of their bilateral relations reflects the shift in the balance of economic strength and in the extent of mutual dependence, said Chen Dongxiao, vice president of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies.
Since China's entry into the World Trade Organization, China and the U.S. have gradually developed a dependent relationship, which considering their economic strength and dependence extent, is one of the most influential relationships in the world, restraining the two countries from potential conflicts in the fields of security and politics, Wang said.
If China and the U.S. cooperate well, the G-20, APEC and the International Monetary Fund would consequently be better-functioning, said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute.
He noted that the nature of China-U.S. relations, whether to be cooperative or not, would set the tone for various multilateral issues including international monetary reform.
Nevertheless, some analysts believe the interdependency is not poised and China's excessive dependence on exports and the U.S. excessive dependence on consumption are not sustainable. Whether or not their relations will develop healthily and continuously is of great significance to the economies of the two countries, and even that of the world.
China-US trade spat in experts' eyes
As China and the U.S. have seen ever-closer economic ties over the past 10 years, the frequency and number of bilateral trade disputes are also on the rise.
Some media described today's China-U.S. relations as "a clumsy couple dance," during which the dancing pair often steps on each other's feet.
With a still high jobless rate, the United States has begun turning to trade protectionism, which, as a result, has pushed its trade conflicts with China into the limelight.
China-U.S. trade tensions sharply escalated this year, as the United States implemented a series of trade protection measures against China, including the imposition of special protectionist tariffs on Chinese tire imports.
In the first three quarters of 2009, the United States launched14 trade remedy investigations against China, involving 5.84 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year rise of 639 percent.
The result of upgraded China-U.S. trade tensions is "a dangerous game of chicken that could easily spin out of control" if the desire to pander to domestic audiences trumps rational collective policymaking in one or both countries, Prasad said.
Wang stressed that cooperation is still the mainstream of China-U.S. trade relations.
China and the U.S. could ensure their "absolute gains" through making a bigger "cake of trade," Wang said.
The two could also win respective "relative gains," which could lead to trade disputes in the process of interest distribution, he said.
Wang said that during the process, it was important for both sides to view their ever-increasing common interests from a strategic perspective.
The growing trade conflicts, from another point of view, actually reflect the increasing interdependence between the two countries, Chen pointed out.
"It might be a zero-sum game for both China and the U.S. when it comes to specific industrial sectors, however, it is a positive-sum game for their overall economic relations," Chen said.
Fu Mengzi, a senior researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, described the present China-U.S. relations as "multi-faceted." Fu said the "stable framework" (of their bilateral relations) should not be shaken by minor frictions.
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