Syria in the eye of the storm
- By Ding Ying
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E-mail Beijing Review, August 7, 2012
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Armed opposition: Syrian rebel fighters in a village near Aleppo on July 30 [Xinhua/AFP] |
Fighting between the Syrian Government and opposition groups will drag on before the country's future becomes clear.
If the situation in Syria were a storm, the country is now approaching the eye of the hurricane after 18 months of conflict. Intense fighting between government forces and rebels broke out in the country's second largest city Aleppo, and insurgent forces claimed the city will see a decisive battle to end the Bashar al-Assad administration.
Chinese political observers noted that the Syria issue has become more complicated with the involvement of Western countries and neighboring countries in the region. They believe the Syrian Government is capable of resisting the rebels longer than Western countries expect, and insist that Syria's peace should be made by Syrian people through communication and negotiation.
Assad still in control
The security situation in Syria is undoubtedly deteriorating. On July 18, four high-ranking security officers were killed in an explosion in Damascus, including Assad's brother-in-law. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of Syrians have become refugees after fleeing violence between government forces and insurgent groups in Damascus and Aleppo in late July. Meanwhile, Western countries and some countries in the Gulf publicly offered assistance to the rebels, heightening pressure on the Assad administration. As the Syrian Government stepped up its attacks on Aleppo, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called for efforts to "bring the Syrian regime down."
Chinese analysts predicted that the Syrian Government, for the foreseeable future, remains strong enough to crush the well-armed insurgents. In their view, the battle over Aleppo won't be the end of fighting in Syria.
The opposition's forces are apparently equipped with better weaponry in the most recent battles in Aleppo than in gunfights in Damascus, but are still not able to compete with the government's firepower, said Liu Baolai, a former Chinese ambassador to several countries in the Middle East and a research fellow with the China Foundation for International Studies, in an interview with Beijing Review.
"The armed forces of the opposition are still weak, scattered and disunited. The war between the opposition and the government is essentially guerilla warfare," Liu said. For example, the opposition once occupied some areas of Damascus, but soon withdrew instead of stationing there, he explained.
Liu added, "I personally believe government forces still dominate Aleppo and the Assad administration can control the country as a whole. The opposition wants to make Aleppo their base camp, similar to Benghazi in Libya before Muammar Gaddafi was defeated. But it is not quite possible in the short run." Liu pointed out that differences inside the opposition are too serious to form a powerful leadership. There is no Syrian opposition group that is truly united with other factions, he added.
Yin Gang, a senior research fellow with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, agreed that Syria will remain in a stalemate between government forces and insurgent groups for some time. It is still too early to say which side is going to win, he said, and the decisive battle will not start unless Assad abandons Damascus and retreats to the Latakia mountain area.
Foreign intervention
Chinese observers believe that foreign intervention is making the situation even more complicated. After months of turmoil, Syria has become an arena for diplomatic competition. Western countries, intending to bring down the Assad administration, declared new sanctions against Syria. Some regional countries also offered political, financial and military assistance to the Syrian opposition.
Jia Xiudong, a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), criticized Western countries' Syria policy for accelerating and aggravating a civil war. Europe and the United States supported former UN Secretary General and UN-Arab League peace envoy for Syria Kofi Annan's initiative politically, but were inclined to oppose his peace plan, he said.
Disappointed over the lack of progress in the Syrian peace process, Annan said he would step down after his current mandate expires at the end of August.
Moreover, Western countries failed to persuade the opposition to adhere to the ceasefire agreement. "The West's Syria policy only encouraged the opposition and their armed forces' intransigence and sharpened the conflict between the Syrian Government and the opposition," Jia said, warning, "If they refuse to change their Syria policy, there will be more bloodshed, humanitarian disasters and regional turmoil."
Liu said the West will not launch military intervention in Syria anytime soon, adding that it will be difficult to copy the Libya model in Syria.
Syria is known as the heart of the Middle East because it carries different countries' interests due to its geographic location and its political influence in the region. "Once the West launches military strikes against Syria, it will trigger conflicts in the region, which could send the situation totally out of control," Liu warned.
"The Syrian government forces are too strong to be defeated in the near future. If the West cannot fight and win a battle quickly, they will not allow themselves to be dragged into a war that they have no confidence in winning," Liu added.
Furthermore, the United States, which heads the Western countries on the Syria issue, will hold the presidential election in November this year. U.S. President Barack Obama, who wants to win another presidential term, will not jeopardize his reelection by opening fire on a country in the Middle East. Meanwhile, EU members are still struggling with the spreading debt crisis and lack the time, energy or money to conduct a military operation.
"Most importantly, without the UN Security Council's support, the West must consider the consequences of sending troops to Syria without a just cause," Liu said.
A political solution
Liu said in the face of turbulence that was triggered by accumulated domestic disputes, a political solution and peaceful negotiation will be the best and only way out of the current stalemate.
The root of Syria's crisis lies in domestic problems caused by poverty, a poor economy and a growing gap between social classes, Liu pointed out. Like in many other countries in the Middle East, the Assad family has run Syria for decades under the same mechanism. Some Syrians hoped to see some changes after political turmoil swept Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and Libya. President Assad tried to conduct reforms in the country, but events unfolded too fast for him to implement the reform plan.
Aside from the global financial crisis aftermath, religious differences also helped create the current situation in Syria, said Liu. For now, the Sunnis are controlling nearly all of the Middle East, and hope the Sunni population in Syria can rise to dominate the country. Currently, the ruling class in Syria is composed of the Alawis, a Shiite branch of Islam.
Li Guofu, a senior research fellow with the CIIS, worried that the crisis in Syria could initiate religious conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in the region. The two Islamic sects' attitudes on Syria are very clear. Sunni-controlled governments and parties are supporting the opposition, while Shiite-led governments are opposing sanctions or advocating non-involvement. We cannot ignore the possibility that Syria's crisis may spread to the neighboring region if the situation deteriorates further, Li warned.
Military action is not the solution to this issue, said Liu. Since the West is unlikely to conduct a military strike against Syria, the Syrian opposition is hardly a match for government forces. The Syrian Government, along with its only ally in the region with a Shiite regime, Iran, has their own problems to deal with, so it will be difficult to exterminate the insurgent forces.
Both sides should accept the reality that they cannot defeat each other easily, said Liu, and only then they will come back to the negotiating table to find a political solution.
On July 30, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon reiterated that the UN Supervision Mission in Syria remains a key tool for a peaceful solution to the Syria crisis based on Annan's six-point plan as well as the June 30 Geneva communiqué, which urged all Syrian parties to stop violence and engage in negotiations. The only solution, he affirmed, is a Syrian-led transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of Syrian people.
"I call on all sides to take immediate steps to meet the Security Council requirements, and give Syria the chance it needs to move beyond the violence and onto the path to peace," Ban said.
Liu suggested such negotiations should be held as early as possible. If Al Qaeda becomes fully involved in the Syria situation, the entire region will see even bigger troubles, said Liu.
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