Syrian crisis sees no foreseeable solution in near future
0 Comment(s)
Print
E-mail Xinhua, August 3, 2012
The Syrian crisis that has been dragging on for 17 months is unexpected to draw to an end soon, as speculations are high that it would go on for months and even years, no matter whether the regime is overthrown or not.
Observers have sounded the alarm that any settlement to the crisis doesn't necessarily hinge on toppling the regime, given the fact that the country is veering towards an internal conflict and Syrian opposition parties are going through internal fragmentation.
Some world powers and regional powerhouses frequently said that the collapse of the Syrian regime is inevitable and is around the corner, and they have even started talking about post-President Bashar Assad era, without hiding their fears of the expansion of fundamentalists in the area.
Fears of fundamentalism
Observers believe that the United States' hesitation to forcefully intervene in the Syrian crisis emanates from its fears that al-Qaida-affiliated groups might hold the reins of power in Syria, a scenario that would put the security and stability of its main ally, Israel, in jeopardy.
Even regional powers seemed to be reluctant to accept the fact that al-Qaida would be a substitute for the current Syrian regime.
What is also a matter of concern, according to observers, is that the country has got involved in an actual sectarian rift between the Sunni-majority opposition groups and loyalists of the Syrian government, most of whom are from the Alawite sect, an offshoot of the Shiite Islam.
Some restive areas in central and northern Syria witness a real sectarian war, with mounting calls on the two sides to maintain self-restraint following a surge of field executions between Sunnis and Alawites.
The observers say that this sectarian war would, in the aftermath of the regime's fall, turn into guerrilla war.
UN observers in Syria who are monitoring the implementation of Kofi Annan's six-point plan said lately that they have confirmation that Syrian opposition groups are using heavy weapons in their fighting with the government.
A war by proxy
There are also mounting concerns in Syria that the country has turned into an arena where some regional and international powers are settling their own accounts and try to achieve some gains.
Observers say that Saudi Arabia and Qatar work to thrust their self-modeled Sunni regime and break up the relations between Syria and its strong allies, Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah party.
Even some superpowers, like Russia, are believed to be trying to have a solid foothold equal to that of the United States in the area via their support to Syria.
Turkey, Syria's northern neighbor that has been an outspoken critic of the Syrian government since the very beginning and hosted the regime's foes on its territories, also has its own plans.
Following reports that the Kurds have controlled some areas in northern Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited recently the Kurdistan capital Erbil, where he had reportedly asked the Kurdistan leader Masoud Barzani not to support the Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
However, Davutoglu mentioned that after creating a "reliable" state structure in Syria, Ankara will support "the Syrian Kurds to receive all the constitutional rights of that country," mainly to gain a federal right in Syria.
Failure of diplomacy
Analysts say that chances for a political settlement in Syria are "nil" after 17 months of regional and international attempts.
What has further boosted this belief is Thursday's decision by Kofi Annan, the UN-Arab League joint special envoy to Syria, to quit his post as an envoy to Syria.
At a news conference, Annan announced he is leaving his post. He said that the Syrian people "desperately need action" but criticize the UN Security Council for "finger pointing and name calling."
Hasan Abdul-Azim, a Syrian leading opponent, told Xinhua that " all hopes for a political solutions have stopped," adding that the situation is veering toward a civil war.
Annan authored a six-point peace plan for Syria which was intended to bring an end to the crisis.
The UN Secretary General has lately said that he would not extend the UN observers' mission in Syria that would expire after 20 days.
Splited opposition
The Syrian opposition is obviously having difficulty agreeing on a common vision. What looked like minor differences have turned out to be great points of contention. The differences between the splintered Syrian opposition parties have been deepened lately following a statement made on Tuesday by the major Syrian opposition figure, Haytham al-Maleh, providing that he has been tasked with forming a government in exile based in Cairo.
"I have been tasked with leading a transitional government," Maleh said, adding that he will begin consultations "with the opposition inside and outside" the country.
Media reports said divisions among opposition groups clearly surfaced after the Council of Syrian Revolutionary Trustees, which is an offshoot of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group in exile, nominated Maleh, one of its own leaders, to form a transitional government.
The head of the rebel Free Syrian Army attacked on Wednesday the formation of a new political coalition outside Syria that plans to establish a transitional government, calling its leaders opportunists who seek to divide the opposition and benefit from the rebels' gains.
Claiming those who formed the new coalition "were hit by a fever of ... acquiring positions," Colonel Riad al-Asaad, the head of the Free Syrian Army, told Al Arabiya TV that such action was " to ride over our revolution."
For those reasons, observers have drawn a bleak vision for the future of Syria.
Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)