The Muslim Brotherhood's political influence has been growing since the Arab Spring's wind of change blew into Egypt. After winning a majority in the recent Egyptian parliamentary election, the Muslim Brotherhood continued to make gains. Its presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi maintained his lead over close rival Ahmed Shafik in the presidential election. However, as the new president was not officially announced until June 24, it is easy to imagine the intense competition between the former military leadership and the Muslim Brotherhood. Prior to the announcement of the official election results, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard to mobilize the masses to put the screws on the military.

As it assumes the reins of political leadership, the Muslim Brotherhood will gradually feel the influence of Egypt's military on the government. The country's ruling military leaders could restrict the Muslim Brotherhood though a variety of ways and means and they even have the power to change the ballot results. Morsi's victory was more the result of concessions by the Egyptian military than democracy in action. The Muslim Brotherhood's vulnerability will be exposed when it confronts the military, despite its greater popularity. The election results were not announced for four days following the closing of ballots and the ruling generals dissolved parliament and drafted a new constitution, both of which suggest that the military has the power to overthrow everything that the Muslim Brotherhood has achieved. Morsi, despite being named president of Egypt, has neither parliamentary nor constitutional support. And his struggle with the military will only intensify in the coming days.

Egypt's supreme constitutional court has decided to dissolve the first democratically elected parliament. In a parallel case, the Supreme Court of Pakistan has found Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani guilty of contempt. These two events show that the politics of both countries are heavily influenced by the military. And the judiciary of the latter has been supported by powerful military and intelligence agencies. Egypt's newly elected government, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, will be sure to suffer similar embarrassments in future to those which have afflicted Pakistan.

The Egyptian military, which shares power with the Muslim Brotherhood, is more likely to check the new government through various means. We have seen in Pakistan that resistance and interference from the military have seriously hampered the governance of Pakistan. Egypt has just gone through an extremely turbulent period and has far more serious internal social and economic problems than Pakistan. The Muslim Brotherhood-led government will not be able to come up with quick solutions to these problems.

In order to ensure a stable, peaceful future, Egypt needs both the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood to work together peacefully; however there is little sign of this happening at present. The struggle for power has escalated, which will continue to weaken the new government,

(This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Li Huiru.)

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn

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