Egypt's political map to have deep regional impact
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E-mail Xinhua, May 31, 2012
Somewhat unexpectedly, a presidential run-off in June between an Islamist and an ex-premier forces Egyptians to choose from them one to lead the country after over a year of social turbulence.
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Coin toss [By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn] |
An influential regional power in the past, the present and, likely still, the future, Egypt will no doubt have a significant impact on regional situation with the era of a new administration in which Islamists are set to have a great say.
Dramatic changes
Since the fall of ex-president Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Egypt has experienced mass protests periodically, some violent and bloody.
The founding of dozens of new political parties has diversified the political arena in Egypt, yet the most obvious is the strong political gains of Islamic forces represented by the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and Salafists.
In the newly elected parliament earlier this year, the MB's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and Salafist Nour Party grabbed more than 70 percent of the total seats. The MB, banned from 1954 until the end of Mubarak's rule, has become the most organized and powerful force in Egypt.
If Mohamed Morsi, chairman of the FJP, wins the run-off against Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister of Mubarak, Egypt is bound to enter a complete new era. However, Egypt still faces multiple serious challenges as the country's economy has been hard hit due to instability. Tourism revenues, foreign investment and foreign reserves all fell sharply last year, while unemployment and poverty-stricken population increased.
In diplomacy, Egypt has devoted more efforts in strengthening its ties with African countries and the Arab world, under the principle of mutual interests, and is determined to restore its regional leading role lost in the Mubarak era, as Egyptian officials have paid visits to Sudan, other Nile basin countries and Gulf nations last year.
Indeed, to revive its economy and protect its national security interests, Egypt needs to make it top priority to enhance relations with Gulf and African nations, political analyst Talant Rahmy told Xinhua.
Meanwhile, Akrm Hossam, a researcher with the National Center for Middle East Studies, admitted that Egypt was a weak state under the rule of Mubarak. Now the country is restoring its "soft power" in the region, he said.
Regional politics
Egypt is the most populous Arab country. With the 22-member Arab League headquarters in Cairo, the capital is actually a center of regional political activities. Even still in the transitional period, Egypt has successfully mediated a lot of regional affairs.
Last year, Egypt managed to persuade Palestinian rivals Fatah and Hamas to reach a historical reconciliation deal and a prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. This year, Egypt worked hard to realize a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, and it also made efforts to calm down the tensions between Sudan and new-born state South Sudan.
In addition to the strong ties with Turkey, Egypt showed its willingness to improve relations with Iran, another regional power that seems more active in this respect. Diplomatic ties between Egypt and Iran was cut more than 30 years ago after Iran's Islamic revolution.
However, the Egyptian-Israeli relations worsened after the fall of Mubarak, as Egyptian protestors stormed the Israeli embassy last year, and gas exports to Israel also stopped this year. The fate of the peace treaty between the two raises concerns. Islamists said they respected the treaty, but some modifications should be made for the sake of Egypt's sovereignty.
Talant Rahmy, a political analyst, said a new order is being built after the regional unrest. It is necessary to adjust foreign policies slightly to balance Egypt's relations with other powers, he noted.
Meanwhile, Houssam said Egypt's new leadership would face very complicated domestic situation and had no time to discuss the agenda within two years.
Egypt-U.S. relations
Egypt has been a key Middle East ally of the United States. With the Mubarak regime gone, the frequency of visits by U.S. officials was unprecedented. Officials from Washington also had meetings with the MB leaders.
Analysts say Egypt has been working to achieve a more balanced relationship with the United States, different from the pro- Western style of the Mubarak era. The MB and Salfist's Nour Party both insist balanced relations between the two. National interests, equality and independence feature Egypt's diplomacy in the new era.
However, there was kind of anti-U.S. sentiment after the turmoil last year, as the U.S. government initially did not support the "revolution." Bilateral relations soured at the end of last year after Egyptian security forces raided some U.S. non- governmental organization offices in Cairo.
Rahmy said the rise of Islamist forces in Egypt would not affect the strategic interests of the United States, such as the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and military cooperation. Once a new president is elected, he still needs support from Washington to achieve what he has promised to its people.
It is predictable that the new administration established under the new democratic system would not be as consistent as the Mubarak one, Rahmy said.
The strategic interests might be slightly different after the leadership changes, but on the whole, they would be more consistent, he said.
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