Difficult balancing act
- By Fraser Cameron
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E-mail China Daily, May 15, 2012
Even before Francois Hollande has been sworn in as French president on May 15 the world is listening to his every word to see if he will stick to his campaign promises. It would come as no surprise to political analysts if Hollande were to find excuses not to follow through on some of his bolder promises. For example, finding and employing 60,000 new teachers will not happen overnight. Reducing the pension age from 62 to 60 will be hugely expensive and is likely to be delayed. He will, however, move quickly to push tax increases on the rich, introduce a financial transaction tax, and legislation to separate retail and investment banking.
Hollande's victory, as well as election defeats for incumbent governments in Spain and Greece, reveals deep popular hostility and frustration in Europe with the austerity policy promoted by Germany. During the campaign Hollande emphasized that a top priority would be to renegotiate the fiscal compact that was signed by 25 of the 27 European Union members at the urging of Berlin. He said that Europe needed growth not austerity. He proposed that the mandate of the European Central Bank should include growth as well as tackling inflation and urged the bank to issue Eurobonds to fund infrastructure projects and boost employment.
But in the wake of his election victory Hollande has started to soften his campaign promise as German Chancellor Angela Merkel has declared her opposition to any formal renegotiation of the fiscal compact. In a telephone conversation after his election victory Merkel said she looked forward to a comprehensive relationship with the new French president. The two leaders now look likely to agree to place more emphasis on growth without diluting the newly-agreed rules to tackle the sovereign debt crisis. Hollande will also have to decide how to respond to Greek demands for a revision of their bailout terms.
Hollande's first foreign visit will be to Berlin, recognition that the Franco-German alliance remains the vital cornerstone of European integration. History shows that political leaders from opposite sides of the spectrum, such as Gerhard Schroeder and Jacques Chirac or Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand, are capable of working together. There is nothing to suggest that Hollande and Merkel will not find a modus vivendi. While Hollande accepts the centrality of the Paris-Berlin axis he has also pledged to reach out to other European Union member states.
The socialist victory in France will give heart to social democrats elsewhere in Europe who have taken an electoral beating in recent years. The Labour Party in the United Kingdom won local elections early this month campaigning against the government's policy of budget cuts. The Social Democrats in Germany are hopeful of forming the government after next year's elections in Germany.
Hollande's victory is a remarkable achievement. Until a sex scandal engulfed him a few months ago it was assumed that Dominique Strauss Kahn would be the socialist candidate. Hollande, a long-time party official but without any government experience, was chosen as the replacement candidate. Inherently cautious, Hollande is unlikely to be reckless in office. He will remember what happened to Mitterrand, the last socialist president of France. When he embarked on a spending spree during his early months in office the markets swiftly brought him to heel. Hollande has thus promised to freeze public spending pending an independent review of the budget to determine if supplementary measures will be needed to hit this year's 4.4 percent deficit target. He has also stated his aim of reducing France's public debt to 60 percent by 2017.
Among his many priorities Hollande will be seeking to consolidate his victory by leading the socialists to a majority in the National Assembly elections on June 10 and 17. Socialist control of the French parliament would make Hollande's life much easier. But the party will face a tough battle with Marine Le Pen's National Front which did remarkably well in the first round of the presidential elections. She hopes to replace Nicholas Sarkozy's conservative party as the leading right-wing party in French politics. If Hollande does not control the parliament he could face a very difficult period of "cohabitation" when many of his policies could be blocked or watered down by a right of centre majority.
Even on the foreign policy front he may find it difficult to keep to his campaign promise to bring French troops out of Afghanistan a year ahead of other major NATO allies. One of his first overseas trips will be to the United States for the G8 and NATO summits. US President Barack Obama will certainly be lobbying Hollande to delay the troop withdrawal.
Hollande thus faces a difficult balancing act. He has to promote growth while not endangering public finances or spooking the markets. He has to keep control of his notoriously fractious socialist party and ensure the right wing does not rob him of a parliamentary victory next month. And he has to turn himself into an instant statesman at a succession of upcoming summits. If he survives these challenges he may be known as Houdini Hollande.
The author is director of the EU-Asia Centre in Brussels.
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