What is to be done with Syria?
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People's Daily, December 1, 2011
Syria has gone through drastic changes recently. The Arab League foreign ministers meeting approved sanctions against Syria on Nov. 27, the US Navy has dispatched an aircraft carrier for Syrian coastal waters, and the United States, Turkey and other countries have started evacuating nationals from Syria. What does the West intend to do with Syria? Will the "Libyan model" be transplanted to Syria? These concerns have become the focus of world attention.
In short, Western intervention in the Syrian situation is a strategic consideration that has to do with reshaping the regional order, while the intensity of intervention mainly depends on the development and evolution of the state of affairs.
The Western countries, represented by the United States, have increasingly intensified regional intervention to avoid becoming the biggest loser in the "Wave of the Middle East," and taken "different treatments and multiple standards" among the Middle Eastern countries according to their needs.
Now the situations inside and outside Syria have undergone great changes, and the West believes that it is a good time to intervene Syria. First, the Syrian political world has been seriously polarized. After eight months of protests, the opposition has basically established its political and military entities and confronted the al-Assad regime.
Second, the regional situation has become increasingly unfavorable for Syria. The Arab League failed in the mediation between the al-Assad regime and the opposition and blamed the regime for it. After suspending Syria's membership earlier, the Arab League announced political and economic sanctions against Syria on Nov. 27. This has left Syria in an isolated and dangerous condition.
Third, the Western countries have started reconsidering the priorities among countries slated for intervention in the Middle East. Now that the Libyan civil war is winding down, the West can concentrate on dealing with Syria and Iran. In addition, the successful military adventures in Libya have stimulated the ambition and appetite of the West for military intervention.
Against this background, the Syria issue was put on the agenda of the West
However, if the West recklessly interferes with the Syrian political situation, the situation of the region will inevitably become more complicated and dangerous. Bashar al-Assad once warned that if the Western countries launch military strike on Syria, Syria will shower Israel with missile. In addition, Syria's allies in the region will not stand by either, and therefore the flames of war may spread to every corner of the region. Russia is also a stronger supporter of Syria and a Russian aircraft carrier is heading to the sea close to Syria.
Historical experience has indicated that the stability of the Middle East depends on the power balance between the radical countries and moderate countries. If the West considers only its own short-term interests and keeps on hitting the radical forces hard while the power imbalance between the conservative forces and radical forces of the Middle East persists, it means the West lacks the sense of geopolitics and is short-sighted and probably will taste the bitter fruit planted by itself in the future. Therefore, the west should think twice before it acts.
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