Most Chinese not satisfied with prices, favor bank savings
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People's Daily, September 19, 2011
Chinese households are not satisfied with overall price rises and most of them expect inflation to go up in the near future, according to a questionnaire survey for the third quarter of 2011 released by China's central bank on Sep. 15.
According to the survey, employment and income witnessed a stable trend, and people were rather cautious in their expectations. A majority of households still believe the current housing prices are too high, and most of them expect prices to remain stable or continue to surge. More people are willing to save money rather than to spend, the survey have found out.
-- Price satisfaction index
A large number of households are not satisfied with commodity prices, and the current price satisfaction index stands at nearly 15 percent, a drop of 2 percent from the previous quarter. Seventy-two percent of households believe commodity prices are “high and difficult to accept,” up nearly 4 percent from the previous quarter, and nearly 27 percent of people say commodity prices are “acceptable,” down nearly 4 percent from the previous quarter.
Nearly 75 percent of households expect commodity prices to rise in the foreseeable future, up 3 percent over the previous quarter, and nearly 50 percent of households believe commodity prices will rise in the next quarter, up more than 4 percent from the previous quarter.
-- Income sensitivity index
The growth rate of residents' incomes is slowing. The current income sentiment index is more than 50 percent, a drop of 2 percentage points compared to that of last quarter. The future income confidence index of residents is more than 54 percent, down by 1 percentage point compared to that of last quarter. Residents are still not optimistic about their future incomes.
-- Employment sensitivity index
The current employment sentivity index of residents stands at 39 percent, a drop of nearly 2 percentage points compared to that of last quarter, and is at a relatively high level since 2009.
The future employment sensitivity index of residents is more than 50 percent, down by more than 1 percentage point compared with the same period last quarter. The residents who predict the employment situation of next quarter will be better or remain stable account for more than 69 percent, and the residents who predict the employment situation will be worse accounts for nearly 12 percent.
-- Savings, investment and consumption desires
With the current prices, interest rates and income levels, nearly 83 percent of urban residents tend to save their money (of them, nearly 40 percent prefer indirect savings patterns such as securities, stocks and funds, and while 43 percent prefer saving their money in the banks), while more than 17 percent tend to spend more. The consumption desire remains at a low level, with the desire to save stands at a high level, while the investment desire is dropping.
In terms of investment forms, nearly 24 percent of households chose real estate investments, up more than 1 percent over the previous quarter. Real estate is still the top investment choice while more than 21 percent and 14 percent of households chose to invest in funds and financial products and securities respectively.
More than 9 percent of households chose stock investments, the lowest level since 2009. As for consumption, high car purchase demands tend to become steady, and the demands for goods in large amounts drop to the lowest level since it was first monitored. Tourism consumption experienced a seasonal decline. Nearly 13 percent of households, mainly in small and medium-sized developing cities, say they want to buy cars. In addition, 24.3 percent and 24.2 percent of households say they want to buy goods in large amounts and spend money on tourism, down 2 percent and more than 5 percent over the previous quarter respectively.
-- Housing price expectations and house purchase intentions
Nearly 76 percent of households say the current housing prices are “too high and hard to accept,” up more than 1 percent over the previous quarter and the highest level since this survey was conducted in 2009. As for the trend of housing prices in the second half of the year, more than 41 percent of households believe it will “basically not change,” a drop of 0.3 percent over the previous quarter.
Nearly 38 percent say housing prices will “rise,” up nearly 2 percent over the previous quarter. Eight percent believe prices will “fall,” a decline of 0.2 percent over the previous quarter. Moreover, 13 percent of households say they are “not certain,” down 1.2 percent over the previous quarter.
More than 14 percent of households say they intend to buy houses in the next quarter, a drop of 0.4 percent from the previous quarter.
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