Should anyone worry if China overtakes the US?
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China's economy is still very much state-led, with the government controlling most of the financial system, the exchange rate, and about 44 percent of the assets of major industrial enterprises. That is why China was able to plow through the world recession with GDP growth of 9.8 percent, despite losing about 3.7 percentage points of GDP due to falling net exports.
Now for the politics and international implications. First, much of the discussion of China's rise is written from a Washington perspective, that is, from the perspective of an empire. From this view, China's rise is a "threat." Since this view sees the supremacy of Washington and its allies as good for the world, China's rise is also seen as a threat to the world. It is assumed that China will become an empire like the United States, but will not be so "benevolent" as the United States is.
This view is not supported by the facts. To take just current and recent history, it is the United States that invaded Iraq, leading to an estimated million deaths, is occupying Afghanistan, bombing Pakistan and Libya, and threatening Iran. The United States' and its allies control over many developing countries' economic policies, through the IMF, World Bank, and other institutions has also caused a lot of damage over the past few decades.
So a shift of power toward a more multi-polar world is likely to give us a more peaceful and just world. In fact, it is already happening: the majority of South America, for example, is now governed by democratic left governments that have produced positive reforms that benefit the majority – something that was practically impossible to achieve while Washington dominated the region. And of course the vast majority of people in the United States also stand to benefit from a smaller US role in the world as we transition back to a Republic from an Empire: less spending on senseless wars, fewer casualties, fewer enemies, less distraction from our real problems at home.
China's foreign policy is mainly geared toward securing the raw materials and trade that will fuel its growth and development. This is done through commercial transactions. Of course its corporations – like those of the rich countries – have come under criticism in various countries. But China does not try to tell other countries what their foreign policy towards other countries, or their overall economic policies, should be – as the United States often does. This is an important difference between a country that pursues its own national and economic interests, and an empire that seeks to impose its own order on the world.
It is always possible that China, once it becomes a rich country – and this is many years away – could develop imperial ambitions. But so far its leadership seems to see China as a developing country seeking to become a high-income country, and doesn't see a role for empire in this process. "Hide brilliance, cherish obscurity," as Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping once said.
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