Pacific dilemma traps US and China in mutual tension
0 
On the verge of the 20th century, bestselling strategic theorist Alfred Mahan advised the White House to gain control over the Western Pacific because of the "astonishing development of Japan" and the "immense latent force of China." World War II and the Cold War added new impetus to such thinking, with Secretary of State Dean Acheson urging the country to establish a defensive perimeter that goes from the "Aleutians to Japan and to the Ryukyus."
Right now, America's Pacific awareness has been revived by the rise of China.
In many ways, the Pacific dilemma is a geopolitical zero-sum game: Whoever gains military power in this area automatically challenges the security of the other.
As much as the US tries to keep its security perimeter close to the Asian continent, China is trying to find ways to reduce the US military maneuverability by building new generations of submarines, long-range missiles, and military aircraft.
This tangled relationship not only continues to complicate diplomacy, but also negatively affect relations with the other Asian countries.
Such military wrangling looks anachronistic.
We live in an age of interdependence. All countries are confronted with similar challenges and there are plenty of political exchanges that should permit states to strengthen cooperation.
Yet, some things hardly change in international politics. Apart from zero-sum geopolitics, altering the balance of power anywhere, however incremental the shifts, cause uncertainty and instability.
This is mostly so because states can never be completely certain that a rising state will behave politely and respect the core security interests of others.
Hence, the greater the power shift, the more pressing the Pacific dilemma, and the more difficult it will be for China to reconcile its quest for military security in the Pacific with its aspirations to create a friendly neighborhood.
The author is a research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (BICCS). The author's new book is Trapped Giant: China's Troubled Military Rises in Asia. forum@globaltimes.com.cn
Go to Forum >>0 Comments