The Korean crisis and Sino-U.S. relations
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The rise in tension has not changed China's objectives on Korean peninsula, which are to preserve peace and stability and to promote the prospects of DPRK denuclearization peacefully and through multilateral negotiations. Overreactions, and activities that undermine stability heighten tension have always been contrary to China's interests.
The current crisis could have either a positive or negative impact on China-U.S. relations.
On the one hand, the shared strategic need to deal with the emergency situation is clear. Although the U.S. has taken a strong position in support of South Korea to demonstrate its resolve to deter North Korea, no country wants to be drawn into a regional military conflict. Given the mutual interest in avoiding escalation, and China's unique ability to influence North Korea, the current crisis might actually be helpful as a catalyst to boost the two countries' willingness to work together to defuse tension and break the deadlock in the denuclearization process on the peninsula.
On the other hand, if China cannot narrow the gaps between the U.S. and South Korea on one hand, and the North Koreans on the other, mutual trust between China and the U.S. regarding security issues on the peninsula will be impaired, and the two countries will become more suspicious of each other's intentions and purposes. Although U.S. officials and analysts regularly call on China to employ harsher methods to rein in North Korea's behavior, and despite the fact that North Korea relies on China's economic assistance for survival, China has limited leverage to influence either North Korean policy or US aims. China's diplomatic tools are also constrained by other factors, such as fear of instability on its borders and its foreign policy principle of nonintervention in the sovereign affairs of other states. If Washington fails to take sufficient account of these factors and blindly presses China into taking action, Beijing's responses are likely to disappoint, and bilateral relations may suffer.
To sum up, the present situation on the Korean peninsula negatively affects China's fundamental national interests by destabilizing the regional environment. Growing tension means there are urgent strategic reasons for policy coordination between China and the U.S. It is remains to be seen whether the active shuttle diplomacy during and after the crisis will overcome the differences that hindered previous negotiations.
The author is an associate professor with Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
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