Time China played true creditor's role
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Once the private sector's credit expansion stopped, panic spread among US economists, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who had studied the Great Depression of the 1930s minutely and was determined not to let the "horrible" deflation recur. Bernanke has always believed that on the slightest sign of deflation the Fed has to "borrow, print and spend money" or even throw it from helicopters to stimulate consumption.
After a credit crunch hit the US, the federal and local governments' liabilities began soaring, reaching $1.8 trillion. Why? Because the US government borrowed, printed and spent money to prevent the national economy from shrinking.
Most of the government's credit expansion measures have not been able to boost the country's economic recovery, and government debts have failed to effectively restart the private sector's credit expansion. And that's the reason why the Fed has decided on the second round of its money printing plan.
During the Fed's debt monetization process, the economy will get another injection for credit expansion. This time, it is Treasury bonds that will probably go through extensive monetization.
It seems Krugman is closer to the truth. Since the Fed is determined to print $1 trillion to buy back its Treasury bonds, the US' bond market will not suffer much if China indeed sells some of the bonds it holds. But Ferguson's statement reflects the situation in the long run: About half of the Treasury bonds' financing is dependent on overseas investment. As one of the biggest buyers of the bonds and with almost one-third of world's foreign exchange reserves, China has the capital strength and potential energy to influence investment in US bonds. In emergency situations, its actions, or even suggestions, could cause a chain reaction leading to a disaster in the bond market.
By June 2009, the US federal government's total liabilities had crossed $13 trillion. Treasury bonds add up to 90 percent of the country's GDP, and if they increase to 150 percent the US would face hyperinflation. A US Treasury Department report submitted to Congress suggested that by 2015, the value of Treasury bonds would increase to $19.6 trillion.
If the US wants to increase its Treasury bonds' value by $6.6 trillion in the next five years, about half the money for that has to come from foreign investors. And a substantial percentage of that has to come from China, which already holds one-third of the world's foreign exchange reserves.
So, even if China does not sell the Treasury bonds it holds but stops buying more, the Fed has to order a third or even fourth round of money-printing. The second round of the Fed's money printing plan has already sent shock waves through the global foreign exchange market and created currency wars among some countries, so people can imagine what the situation would be like if the Fed decided to print more money. If that were to happen would any country dare to hold US dollar assets?
There is a reverse relationship of creditor and debtor between China and the US: The biggest debtor lists a series of strict requirements for its biggest creditor and threatens it with penalties.
It is the lack of will to use its power, rather than not having enough power that has led the creditor into a passive position. But the debtor does not realize that. Maybe this is the time for the creditor to use its power.
The author has a book, Currency War, to his credit.
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