Republicans poised for big gains in U.S. elections
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After two years of high unemployment, a sluggish economy and an increasingly angry and anti-incumbent public, many voters will head to the polls on Tuesday with the intention of booting out the Democrats.
Republicans are likely to win control of the House of Representatives and make substantial gains in the Senate. While they may not garner the votes needed to comprise a majority of Congress, they will be able to easily block any Democrat legislation.
Voters are frustrated over high jobless rates that stem from the worst recession since the 1930s, and are blaming the Democrat-controlled Congress. While the economy has clawed its way out of the depths of the recession, the recovery is fragile and unemployment is likely to remain high for several years to come, economists said.
In its final measure of predicted voter behavior released on Sunday, a USA Today/Gallup poll shows Republicans with a solid lead over Democrats, which is large enough for the Grand Old Party (GOP) to take more than the 40 seats they need to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
The survey finds that 52 percent to 55 percent of likely voters favor the Republican candidate and 40 percent to 42 percent prefer their Democratic candidate.
Support for Congress in general stands at an all-time low, with 21 percent of Americans approving of the Congress' performance, and 22 percent saying they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country right now, according to Gallup.
In many ways, U.S. President Barack Obama's flagging popularity rate -- now at 45 percent from a high of near 70 percent just after he took office -- has contributed to the sour mood toward the Democrat-controlled Congress, experts said.
Many Democratic candidates have even distanced themselves from the president, although his popularity ratings are not as low as those of his predecessor at the end of his term.
The anger is not only toward Democrats, but is also directed against incumbents in general.
According to Rasmussen, another polling company, 65 percent of voters think it would be better to get rid of the entire Congress rather than to keep those currently in office, although that is unlikely to happen.
"We actually have an odd situation where Republicans are very unpopular right now, but they are still likely to win big victories," said John Fortier, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
New congress, same olde problems
But despite what are widely predicted to be substantial gains over the party blamed for flagging economy, little is likely to change after the mid terms.
Experts said Congress will become even more contentious -- and this is already the most divided Congress in years, they said.
"It is going to be hard to get anything through Congress," said Darrell M. West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution. "Republicans will be issuing subpoenas and will make the lives of administration officials miserable."
And despite the coming shift, Congress will likely remain unpopular and the next Congress could continue to elicit voters' ire if they perceive the economy as not improving, Fortier said.
Indeed, the jobless rate is likely to remain high for years -- some economists say even a decade -- and the International Monetary Fund predicts that unemployment will only get down to 8 percent by 2013, which is still far above pre-recession levels.
"Voters are bottom line oriented, so if the new Congressional majority does not deliver results, it will become as unpopular as the current Congress," West said.
Skirmishes over taxes, spending and healthcare
After the dust clears, first on the post-midterm agenda will be taxes and the budget.
"We are likely to have an early big fight over the Bush tax cuts and whether to extend them," Fortier said.
Tax cuts instituted by former President George W. Bush are due to expire soon. Democrats want to continue cuts for everyone except for top earners, and Republicans want to extend them across the board.
Republicans may also send budget and appropriations bills to the president that spend less than the president wants, which could spur a battle over spending, Fortier said.
Many Democrats argue that spending is necessary to stimulate the economy in this harsh economic environment, while Republicans fret over the deficit.
West said Republicans may attempt to repeal Obama's health care reforms, which were the source of heated and bitter debate between the two parties last year.
A repeal of the overhaul, however, will never make it through the Senate. If it did, the president would veto it, West said.
Fortier said Republicans will put parts of health care up for votes, some of which they may win, and other just to make a point.
As health care reform is phased in over the next several years, Congress could see continuing fights over its funding, among other aspects of the bill, he said.
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