China isn't really taking over the world
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The rise of China is, as we all know by now, the definitive economic and political story of our time. Every week a new book title announces an "irresistible" tilt East, the emergence of "Chimerica" and a not-too-distant future when China "rules" the planet. The mainstream media, and especially the business press, are gripped by the narrative of China taking over the world - every other headline in the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal has a China focus.
But the coverage of China's global inroads has been profoundly short on context, particularly when it comes to how China is - and is not - surpassing the US as a global power. There are plenty of stories of a Chinese-sponsored infrastructure project or a Chinese company cutting a deal to feed its "insatiable thirst" for raw materials, while Western involvement of similar or greater magnitude is lucky to make a headline at all.
A close look at the key economic metrics and the subtler shades of power, such as cultural influence and humanitarian aid, reveals that while China is indeed one of the great powers in the world now (late last month it officially overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy), its influence is mixed, and often undercut by America's.
While China's trade with regions like Africa and Latin America is growing exponentially, it is still outpaced by America's, which tends to be more diverse. In Asia, China is now the dominant trading partner, yet the flows are mainly in low-end goods, while America dominates higher up the food chain. US aid and foreign direct investment in these regions still eclipses that of the Chinese, and its soft power still reigns, as does its military might, despite recent Chinese buildups in this area.
"Economic heft alone has never been enough for a country to be dominant outside its borders," says Charles Onyango-Obbo, a journalist who writes for the weekly newspaper The East African. He recently penned a column titled Chinese Takeover? I'm Not Losing Any Sleep. "It's really been American education, technology, culture (Hollywood and music), business, and sport that has enabled it to be so overarching," says Onyango-Obbo. "China is going to be a very important power in the world, but it will not be dominant."
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