What the UK election result means
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Turning to the policies of the new government; although Conservative leader David Cameron has sought to give his party a more "modern" image on issues such as the environment, on the key issues of the economy and foreign policy the Tory Party is dominated by figures such as Michael Gove and defence secretary Liam Fox, who are linked to US neo-conservatives. Domestically the government is committed to severe cuts in welfare spending that will undoubtedly lead to it rapidly becoming unpopular. Internationally the Conservatives are more closely aligned with the US than the European Union.
Regarding relations with China, Gordon Brown, having been in charge of Britain's economic policy over a long period, placed great emphasis on strong economic links with China. The new administration gives less weight to this issue.
On paper the Liberal Democrats have many policies opposed to those of the Conservatives. They opposed the war in Iraq; they are opposed to the modernisation of Britain's aging Trident nuclear missile force; the Liberal Democrats are traditionally the most pro-European Union of the British parties whereas the Tories are the most Euro-sceptic; the Liberal Democrats are in favour of a proportional voting system while the Tories are against it.
But the Liberal Democrats are trapped by the logic of their decision to enter a coalition government as a minority party. On all decisive issues it will be the policies of the Conservatives that will prevail. The Liberal Democrats rejected an offer from Labour to form a coalition with policies that included the immediate introduction of a limited form of proportional representation, despite the fact that this would have greatly increased the number of Liberal Democrat members of parliament at a future election. During the first few hours of the new government it was announced that the modernisation of Trident would go ahead, and that the government would seek to block moves to fuller integration of the European Union.
The reason the Liberal Democrat leaders have entered into a full coalition with the Conservatives, rather than the more limited option of supporting them on an issue by issue basis, is fear of the electorate. It is universally recognised that the economic policies of the government will be extremely unpopular. The Liberal Democrats want to avoid the possibility of a general election in the short term in which they would be punished by the votes for supporting unpopular Conservative measures. They hope that after five years, the maximum lifetime of a British parliament, the economy will have recovered and the short term unpopularity of the government will have disappeared. The Tories also expect to be extremely unpopular in the short term and also want to avoid an early election. Both parties, therefore, arrived at the conclusion that they need a formal, and therefore more stable, coalition rather than the more risky option of a minority Conservative government.
Another result of the election will be a rapid recovery in support for the Labour Party – which will vote in parliament against the worst social and welfare cuts of the government. Labour will also benefit from the large number of voters who chose the Liberal Democrats as an alternative to the Conservatives and will now turn to Labour instead. As Liberal Democrat support falls another smaller beneficiary may be the Green Party – which for the first time has won a seat in parliament.
Given that the government will be unpopular, both the Conservatives and Liberals will do whatever they can to avoid an early general election. There will doubtless be a great deal of backdoor manoeuvring by the parties against each other, briefings against each other to the media etc, as each seeks to avoid unpopularity by blaming the other. But together they have a sufficient majority in Parliament to ensure an election does not take place, and it is therefore likely that the government will last for four or five years.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/node_7080931.htm
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