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Validity of Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks in doubt

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Conditional talks

Initially, the Palestinians had insisted they would not talk with the Israelis at all until a full Israeli building freeze was in place in the West Bank and eastern Jerusalem. The idea of indirect talks was a face-saving move allowing the Palestinians to enter negotiations without appearing to have made a major u-turn.

Israeli soldiers arrest a Palestinian youth during clashes with Palestinian protestors in the West Bank city of Hebron, on February 26, 2010. [Xinhua photo]

The Arab League also gave the Palestinians some wiggle room by saying the issue would have to be reassessed in four months and a full freeze would have to be in place for direct negotiations to start.

"The indirect negotiations should not be turned into direct ones automatically ... direct Palestinian-Israeli negotiations require stopping all forms of settlements in the occupied lands including Al-Quds (Jerusalem)," Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said in a statement on Wednesday.

Whatever the thinking was in Cairo, Brown believes it was extremely well received by Washington.

"From the perspective of the Obama administration, this is the real positive development -- they needed an Arab League umbrella to pull the Palestinians into the talks," he said.

However, if the Obama administration believes it can gain political mileage from indirect talks, it should think again, said Brown. "An agreement would give them mileage; merely starting talks will convince few sceptics," he said.

Next moves

Mitchell is expected in the region on Saturday and will begin his work in earnest on Sunday. Reports from Washington suggest the Americans would like to see a formal announcement made by Biden regarding the resumption of talks during his visit next week.

Diplomats from several countries linked to the peace process have suggested it may take a little more time for the logistics to be put in place before both Israel and the Palestinians are prepared to publicly commit wholeheartedly to the talks.

Whenever the indirect negotiations begin, even if they are negotiations about negotiations, Washington believes they are a step in the right direction after a hiatus of more than a year.

If the parties begin going over old ground and nothing more they are talking, even if the process might be somewhat awkward and embarrassing.

However, analysts say while talking is good, the process can only be measured by its end result, and many remain highly unconvinced that agreement will be the final product.

Too many facts on the ground weigh against the success of any parley, with some suggesting that the sides are much closer to another period of violence than a handshake on the lawns of the White House.

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