By Tichaona Chifamba

Despite the problems dogging Zimbabwe's inclusive government, the arrangement is in no mortal danger and the three parties to the Global Political Agreement (GPA) will soldier on, a top Zimbabwean academic has said.

Political scientist Professor Eldred Masunungure said on Friday that there is political turbulence in the inclusive government itself, within the two MDC formations and also within Zanu-PF, a situation which does not bode well for the future of the government.

While acknowledging that the inclusive government is in serious danger, he did not see the threat as mortal.

Masunungure accused the guarantors to the GPA, in particular the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and South African President Jacob Zuma, of standing aloof while GPA is under threat.

"I think the guarantors are being delinquent. Why are Zuma, SADC and the African Union quiet? They have a special summit on Madagascar, why did they not include Zimbabwe on the agenda? I think SADC and Zuma in particular must take full responsibility for what happens or does not happen. At the moment it seems they have washed their hands, but pressure must be applied on them, especially SADC."

"Most Zimbabweans, unless if there are some who are benefiting from the previous chaos, want this experiment of the inclusive government to succeed. SADC should, therefore, wake up from its slumber and interfere in a constructive manner in the problems the government is experiencing," Masunungure, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, said.

The larger MDC led by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai has raised a number of outstanding issues, saying the Zanu-PF side of the GPA, through President Robert Mugabe, is failing to address. It has since referred some of the issues to SADC as it seeks a resolution.

The smaller MDC led by Deputy Prime Minister Professor Arthur Mutambara has generally been quiet over the outstanding issues.MDC Tsvangirai hinted earlier in the week that it reserved the right to disengage if outstanding issues in the GPA are not resolved.

Wide cracks within the government showed on Monday when cabinet ministers from the party boycotted a cabinet meeting scheduled for the day.

Apart from highlighting the outstanding issues, the ministers were not amused by the fact that the meeting had been moved forward from the traditional day so that President Mugabe could chair the meeting before he left for the African Union summit in Libya.

According to the GPA, Tsvangirai chairs cabinet meetings in the absence of Mugabe. Therefore, the MDC argued that the decision was designed to avoid a situation where Tsvangirai would have to chair a cabinet meeting.

"At the epicenter of our disappointment has been the unwillingness of Zanu-PF to resolve the unfinished issues of the inclusive government under the GPA. In particular, despite five months of endless meetings amongst the principals, the central issues of the Reserve Bank governor, the Attorney-General, the provincial governors, the swearing in of Roy Bennet and the appointment of ambassadors remain unresolved as the inclusive government is yet to be fully constituted," MDC deputy president and Deputy Prime Minister in the inclusive government Thokozani Khupe said on Monday, explaining reasons for the cabinet meeting boycott.

She added that while the MDC remained fundamentally committed to the GPA "in the interests of our people, it is our constitutional right to consider disengagement".

Bennet is on bail following allegations of unlawful possession of arms of war and Mugabe has refused to swear him in as deputy minister of agriculture.

Masunungure said although there has been talk of disengagement, there was no incentive for any of the three parties to the GPA to do so.

"I don't think the 'divorce' the MDC is talking about will succeed. There is absolutely no incentive, and if anything, they are decisive against pulling out. None of the parties will pull out, and MDC will not be the first to pull out."

"The inclusive government will continue to wobble along like a vehicle with a bad wheel, and it will get wherever it wants to get. It is in serious trouble, but not in mortal danger. We will continue to read about the impending collapse but that won't happen," he said.

When Tsvangirai defended his ministers' decision to boycott cabinet, he also hinted the possibility of a divorce if things were not working in the inclusive government.

"The ministers from my party disengaged from the Cabinet meeting held yesterday (Monday). I understand their frustrations and concerns. It is the same frustration expressed by Zimbabweans in general and the international community that we wish to re- engage with as a nation. These frustrations emanate from the slow pace of the implementation of the GPA," Tsvangirai said at a press conference on Tuesday.

It will be difficult for the MDC to explain to many of its constituents any disengagement, because many people attributed the lessened hardships to the inclusive government.

One analyst said the MDC is in a better position than Zanu-PF to stay in the inclusive government because the people believe that the better state of affairs in the country is a direct result of the party being part of government.

"If it disengages, it will be shooting itself in the foot," the analyst said.

(Xinhua News Agency July 3, 2009)