By Zhu Li

After the confrontation concluded as the leaders of protesters declared surrender on Tuesday noon, the curtain finally fell down for the 20-day chaos staged in Bangkok.

People just exhaled with relief and began to ponder how this crisis would shadow Thailand's outlook.

Big blow on Thai economy

The city is still echoing with gunshots. Smokes from burning tires and buses had barely dispersed. And the Songkran Festival, traditional Thai holiday that falls on April 13-15, may end up with much less celebrations. Bangkok's charm to tourists around the world may be further withered away.

Many foreign tourists will have to weigh their decision of spending holidays in Thailand, a country famous for the beauty of its beaches and the kindness and hospitality of its people.

According to Tourism Council of Thailand president Kongkrit Hirunkit, actions of the red-shirt movement could pull the tourism revenue down this year by least 30 percent.

The PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) protesters' occupations of Suvarnabhumi airport late last year would take six to nine months for local tourism to recover, Hirunkit said. Then the impact of red-shirts' sabotage of ASEAN summits and clashes with security forces and residents, which left 121 injured and two dead, will by no means less than that.

The tourism sector, which generated about 540 billion baht ( about 15.4 million US dollars) annually, may lose up to 200 billion baht this year because of the red-shirt movement. More than two million people working in the tourism industry would be affected.

An estimation released on April 8 by University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Center said the Thai economy is likely shrink more than 5-6 percent this year if the ongoing political standoff escalates -- like what has happened.

National image tainted 

Bangkok has seen the anti-government rally led by the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), or the now-well- known "red shirts", lasting for 20 days. On April 8, a day the red-shirts leaders called their "D-day", as many as 100,000 supporters of the convicted former Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra joined a mass rally, to demand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and three Privy Council members to resign. Refused by Abhisit, the red-shirted crowd on April 10 stormed the venue of the ongoing ASEAN summits in the resort city Pattaya, a move that gave the world a shock.

When Abhisit declared the cancellation of the summits and the arrived Asian state leaders were evacuated with helicopters, "it was costing much more than just Abhisit's face", a Thai media said.

Even though the chaos has cooled down and Thai government has " nearly achieved the mission of restoring law and order to the country", Thai's credibility for hosting and safeguarding an international convention has diminished. It may take time to restore.

Also, the lingering and escalating protests by UDD, together with the siege of international airports by PAD last years, cast shadow on the people's faith on the Thailand's political outlook.

ASEAN's interests damaged

Asian countries are enduring the severe impact of a global financial meltdown. According to Asian Development Bank, the growth rate of Asian developing countries in 2009 may suffer a cut by 50 percent. Under this circumstance, the three-day 14th ASEAN summit and related summits, which was scheduled to kick off on April 10, is particularly important.

China and ASEAN had initially planned to ink an investment agreement at their summit. The agreement, if signed, together with a 2004 goods agreement and a 2007 services agreement, will formally complete the China-ASEAN free trade area negotiation process. Besides, the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement was to be signed on April 11. Now the plans, as well as other crucial discussions, have to be deferred.

Just like what Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said, the postponement of the summits could "delay the benefits of closer integration for hundreds of millions living and working in Southeast Asia."

Najib said in his blog, "I reflected with great concern how domestic political challenges like these can impede the good work of a regional grouping like ASEAN.

(Xinhua News Agency April 15, 2009)