Expert: China making great progress on renewable energy
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Radio 86's Mads Schmidt had a talk with Nis Hoyrup Christensen, Ph.d. DI, from Copenhagen Business School about China's efforts to cut emissions by implementing sustainable solutions for renewable energy sources. Also in context with the climate summit in Copenhagen. Nis Hoyrup has done several publications on China and East Asia.
Mads: I read in your Ph.d. abstract on CBS home page that China is intending to extend it's supply of energy coming from renewable energy sources from 8 percent in 2006 to 15 percent in 2020. How ambitious would you call this?
Nis: Background is that China actually has a high use of renewable energy through many years of experience with large hydro electric powerplants. China did its first law on renewable energy in 2006 and in 2007 they set their first binding targets which were rather ambitious. They set targets for 2010. And now the sector is booming in China and they are very likely to revised upwards. No new targets have been published but that is of course because of COP15. And this will be part of the negotiations as renewable energy is a way of cutting CO2 emissions. Rumour has it that the target for 2020 might reach 20 percent. But we already see now that they have raised their partial aims for wind power rather massively and also for solar power. These indicate that progress is being done and that there are higher aims.
Mads: So now we already got to the subject of the Copenhagen summit?
Nis: Yes, regarding the summit the Chinese proposal is based on the fact that they will not put any specific figure on emission cuts. But rather limit emissions of green house gasses (GHG) per produced unit of GDP. And this is their way of saying: "We are willing to help with this global issue and we acknowledge that there is a problem. But we will not limit our growth!" So China wants to keep the steam up but will do what they can to limit emissions. And of course we should see this as a tactical approach to the negotiations, ie. there has to be something to bargain with. And the Chinese will probably agree to some sort of a fixed target.
Mads: Regarding the initial Chinese proposal, we have read about the common but differentiated responsibility. How shall this be understood?
Nis: Well this is very much due to the fact that China wants to retain its growth. But do it in a more sustainable way not emitting as much CO2. But it also has to do with energy intensity. And tying oneself to a fixed target will make it harder to reach. However this is a more flexible way of working with it. And then this is also the Chinese way of saying: It is the developed countries who have created this problem. Of course China is the world's largest emitter of CO2 but seen as a whole this problem has been caused by the OECD countries. And thus China should not be limited so heavily now that China only recently has become part of the problem.
Mads: So this may also be a reason to ask for technology transfers from the developed countries?
Nis: Yes it looks as if this will become a crucial point in the Chinese negotiating tactics. And here they will ally themselves with the developing countries. One of the issues is that many of the technologies are already present, amongst other places, in China. And China is actually a country that possesses some of these technologies. Particularly solar power. Actually Chinese firms are on the forefront here. So there is some reason in being sceptical towards these technology transfers and it's really an issue for western firms and thus also western countries. The crucial point is that they will want to hold on to their intellectual property rights. Or else there is not so much of an incitement for investors and firms to develop new technologies. So what on short term may look as a good solution might on long term harm market development. And you do need to develop markets for the solutions. And make them commercial. But the reason for me being a bit sceptical is that China is already really good at this. Also regarding developing new technologies. And it looks as if the Chinese are catching up with the technological advance of the western countries. Another facet is that China is able to decimate the costs for these solutions that are needed to limit emissions of CO2. What we see these days is that China is able to produce very cheap wind turbines because they can get the production costs down. And the same for solar power.
Mads: So which renewable solutions are being used in China right now?
Nis: Mainly hydro electric power which China has been utilizing for a long time. The big dams are what we hear about here in the west. But the big new thing is wind power. And now we also see some large, powerful Chinese companies taking larger market shares. So the western companies will experience strong competition on the Chinese market. Another thing that will become extremely large in China is solar power. Chinese producers are very strong here. Production of solar panels require a lot of labour and this gives China an edge. So far American and European companies have had some very good silicone contracts, and silicone is a main component in solar panels, but now the prices have dropped so they have lost this advantage.
The Chinese are also focusing on biomass. There are a few Chinese companies really advancing here. And this is such a fabuluos solution because there's such a lot of agriculture in China. And it's really good because it creates growth in rural areas. And this is a big thing for the Communist Party of China. To be able to help the lowest of society. To help the peasants and raise their income. Biomass helps in the way that the government just buys refuse from the farms and simply puts money in the hands of the farmers. It can even be organized so that after burning the rubbish they can return the ashes to the farmers and they can use it as fertilizer for the arable land. So there's some fantastic opportunities for China. Evolve agriculture and get economic growth into this sector and at the same time produce energy for the cities.
Mads: Yes if anybody can do this, it must be the Chinese?
Nis: Yes this is where the government can get development going. And they've proven themselves really good at this. The harder part can be enforcement of rules. Environmental crimes and so forth. But here it's all about creating markets and promote the use of renewables. And the Chinese are good at this. And now they give subsidies creating markets that were not there before. And this way they get more commercialized. And on the long run these solutions can work without subsidies.
Mads: So what about the coal? I've read that 70 percent of Chinese energy comes from coal plants.
Nis: Yes, this is a problem. China has almost endless supplies of coal and it's cheap. So it's tempting to continue with coal. But China really feels the consequenses. And it's very concrete. In China the coal is in north and west. And all the consumption is in the east and the south. Just transporting the coal gives enormous amounts of dust and people are really suffering from this. And it is actually these problems that have fueled the ambition to have renewable energy in China. So China thinks of many aspects of investing in renewable energy. Both fighting poverty and building a sustainable future. So renewable energy is one of the strong cards that they play at the summit. And what China has proposed is ambitious because they have this big supply of coal.
Mads: So what about the existing polluting coal power plants? Should they then be closed?
Nis: See this is where people don't know too much about what is actually going on in China. The fact is that they are already closing the old power plants. This is also an easy way to cut emissions. And then build new and much more efficient ones. But there's still a great bit to be gained compared to western technologies, namely Danish technologies. So far they are only using coal to produce energy (electricity). But in Denmark we also utilize the excess heat for central heating for people's homes. And thus using more of the energy that the coals contain. So there are areas where the Chinese still can become better. The fact is that they are working on it. And despite a growing need for more energy and with tremendous growth they have still achieved to initiate some measures to reduce emissions and also get a higher energy efficiency.
Nis: One more thing that I think we should also mention is actually China's largest contribution to reducing emissions. It's the China's family planning policy also some times, a bit misleadingly, referred to as the one child policy. The fact that China is able to control it's population growth. This is simply the single biggest contribution to reducing emissions. If China had not had this programme there would have been 400 million more Chinese within the next few years. And they would all have been emitting CO2. And this is really one of the biggest contributions at all.
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