The United States has suffered continuous setbacks after it obstinately launched the Iraq war in disregard of internal and external pressures. The result is out of the expectations of many people. The reason for this is that the new conservatives holding power in the US government have committed two fundamental errors.

First, they have formulated and implemented a strategy of containment, such as containing all competitors and establishing a unipolar world; they combined counter-terrorism and accelerated implementation of its world-domination strategy; and institution of unilateralist and preemptive strategies, all these go against the trends of today's world nationalism, multi-polarization and economic globalization and against world people's desire for peace and development.

Second, they calculated that with unmatched military strength and enormous economic and political influence, the United States is all-powerful and can do as it pleases, and that it can carry out war and intervention in all parts of the world. It even attempts to fight five wars in a year. All these exceed the American sustainability in economic and military aspects and in public opinion.

The global neocolonial system formed in the early 20th century was disintegrated in the latter half of the said century, this represents an epoch-making great development in the century. Nowadays, the United States, flaunting the banner of counter-terrorism and taking Afghanistan and Iraq as breaches, attempts to control the Middle East and proceed to control the Eurasian continent and establish a 21st century global empire. The modern Islamic rejuvenation movement, emerged in the fight against Western colonial oppression, has a strong nationalist tendency. For example, the national resistance movement is now being formed in Iraq in which the Shiites and Sunnis Muslims unite in their fight against occupation by US troops. In a recent interview US scholar Huntington pointed out: the Americans will never win the war against the Iraqi Muslims. It appears that the US neo-conservatives have immeasurably underestimated the nationalist strength of the people of Iraq and other Arab countries.

The incident of the "September 11" 2001 terrorist attack has thoroughly exposed the weak point of the United States, making the country a target of attack by the world anti-US forces. As early as before the "September 11" event, some American newspapers and magazines had pointed out: Due to the resentment of the world people, fight against America has become a global phenomenon. Instead of making self-examination, the US rulers seek deterrent force for the world's sole superpower. This move can only anger the world. US counter-terrorist war has made more enemies for itself and its followers. On March 12, 2004, the Boston Global News (Website) wrote: The Bush administration was reluctant to see that the anti-US forces have developed to a climax since the end of the Vietnam War.

The world multi-polarization trend continues to develop in a zigzagging process. Domination and anti-domination, and uni-pole and multi-poles are and will be a focus of international trial of strength for a considerably long period of time to come. After the first Gulf War, there appeared in the world the tendency of ferment to put US monopoly under restraint. After the Kosovo War, Europe tried hard to establish an independent defense force. After the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, Europe accelerated promoting defense building, and some big countries and developing nations began to strengthen coordination and cooperation to restrain the United States. This indicates that the US search of hegemony has spurred the further development of world multi-polarization; and that though other world forces still cannot stop US launch of the Iraq War and other unilateral actions, they can contain and restrain America to a certain extent and cause it to suffer setbacks; it also indicates that to form a new multi-polar world pattern, it is still necessary to go through a long-term process of division and combination, twists and turns, ups and downs, and difficulty and complexity. Nevertheless, it should be noticed that the combination of forces and the interest pattern in today's world are experiencing profound changes. The fact that the Spanish People's Party government, which followed the United States in sending troops to Iraq, suffered crushing defeat in the election, and that the new Spanish government has pulled its troops from Iraq and is strengthening cooperation with France and Germany, is an important example of the change in the combination of forces in Europe.

US neo-conservatives underestimated today's world capability in restraining the United States and overestimated the American domestic bearing capacity.

The US rapid economic growth in the 1990 benefited from the US economic structural adjustment which led the world in the fields of high technology and new industries, but it also gave rise to such problems as the bubbles of stock market, the excessive development of hi-tech industries and company scandals. Despite US economic recovery, its huge amounts of financial deficit, trade deficit, the sharp rise of foreign debts, the wide disparity between the poor and the rich and the increase of private and enterprise debts will do long-term harm to the US economy.

Though US new military strategy is leading the world, it also exposes US weaknesses such as fear of casualties, difficulty in fighting guerrilla war, US military presence at home and overseas being vulnerable to attacks, far-flung battle line, insufficient armed forces and low morale. The Iraq War demonstrated the superiority of US powerful military forces, but it also exploded the myth of the US "incomparable power" and "invincibility".

After the "September 11" incident, the US government, taking advantage of the general public's psyche of astonishment, fear and revenge, won domestic support by means of a "counter-terrorist war state", suppressed objection and action, discriminated against and excluded immigrants, particularly Muslim immigrants. But the increase of casualties of US troops in Iraq and other places, the heavier financial burden, the unfounded reason for launching war in Iraq and the scandal of US troops' abuse of prisoners have caused more and more Americans to doubt about the government's current policies. The US government is regarded as "the synonym of deception and abuse of power" by some people. A poll conducted last December reveals that 37 percent of the Americans say that the United States itself is the greatest threat to world peace. Not long ago, Zhigniew Brzezinski, former assistant to the US President in national security affairs, wrote: a United States which tops the list but breaks faith with the international community is an isolated and weak United States in the world. He also said: The phenomenon of US loss of international reputation and its becoming increasingly isolated reflects a distressing paradox: US global forces are at a historical pinnacle, but US international political status has fallen to a slump.

US rulers are often liable to overestimate their own strength, and underestimate the challenges and problems they face. The neo-conservatives have reached a new peak in this respect. But the result will be, as a saying goes, "the higher they climb, the harder they fall". Pressed by the situation, the US government is making certain adjustments to its tactics and methods. But so far its global strategy and basic policies essentially remain unchanged. It is likely to rush down the pre-set road, which would lead to the result independent of people's will.

(People's Daily May 31, 2004)