The hot pursuit for Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, is seemingly going in vain, as the prey called for a topple of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, his hunter, in a video tape on Thursday.  

The operation, starting from March 16, is still going on in South Waziristan, one of Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. However, even the once optimistic military is now playing down the possibility of a catch of the so-called "high-value target."

Strategists here see that incompetent intelligence work-out and the complexity of the geographic and ethnical circumstances in the tribal area might lead to the explosion of the bulb of the then high expectation.

Firstly, there might be no top al-Qaeda official being trapped in the first place, said Khalid Rahman, an analyst with the Islamabad-based Institute of Policy Study.

The expert said the information on al-Zawahiri's presence in that area is pure speculation.

Then how did the military assert that al-Zawahiri was in South Waziristan? Major General Shaukat Sultan, the military spokesman, told Xinhua that in the Day One, military personnel faced heavy resistance from the rounded militants during their search, which indicated that there might be a certain "high-value target" included.

The military has never specified al-Zawahiri as "the high-value target," the general noted, adding that it is the media that swirled around the rumors that Pakistani forces were closing to the al-Qaeda top henchman.

The general is right. However, reporters here can easily recall the answer from the general when being questioned on whether "the high-value target" referred to Zawahiri.

The answer was always like this: "It could be anyone." So how could the media read the answer?

Secondly, even if al-Zawahiri was once rounded in that area, it is a big chance for him to escape with the help of the complicated ethnical and geographic circumstances. And the videotape turns out to be evidence supporting the above assumption.

Locals are supporting the militants. People in South Waziristan, like many in all the other six tribal areas, mostly belong to the ethnic group of Pushtun, the same of lots of Taliban elements.

They have a long history of protecting guests at any cost and along history of carrying guns.

Terror suspects hiding out there speak the same language and wear the same dress as locals do, making the military feel cautious about using heavy weapons, which led to the slowdown of the operation, said Major General Shaukat Sultan.

The geographic situation is not pleasant for the military, either. The militants are literally holing up in the area. There are too many holes and fortresses there, making the government forces, attired with heavy weapons, feel uneasy to get up-handed.

And there came out the under-ground tunnels. A disclosure of a 2-km tunnel finally muted the high expectation that Zawahiri is going to be captured.

Khalid Rahman, the strategist, said if you dig out one tunnel, you cannot rule out that there might be thousands more, which signifies that "the high value target" might earlier flee the cordoned zone, given that there has been one such target.

Yet, one cannot under-evaluate the gains of the major crackdown. There have been at least 163 terror suspects being captured and at least 35 killed, according to the most recent statistics from the military.

The crackdown itself shows the determination of Pakistani government to fulfill its commitment to the international community that the country will fight against terrorism iron-handedly.

And Pakistan, as well as the international community, knows well that the capture of al-Zawahiri, or even bin Laden, will not end up the war on terror at one night.

(Xinhua News Agency March 28, 2004)