It is widely believed that bilateral relations, especially the economic and trade ties, will be high on the agenda of Musharraf'smeeting with US President George Bush on June 24 at the presidential resort Camp David. Musharraf, according to analysts here, wants to achieve the following main goals with his "crucial"visit.

Firstly, to form a strategic rather than "tactic" or "event-oriented" Pak-US relationship. It is an undeniable fact that the Pak-US relations have maintained on a trouble shooting basis. Many Pakistanis complain that Washington never hesitates to turn to Islamabad when it needs Islamabad's cooperation, otherwise the US policy makers desert their little partner mercilessly.

Musharraf wants something different. He wants to stabilize its revived relations with the United States since his country has sacrificed dearly for its cooperation in the US-led international coalition against terrorism. That relationship must be a long-termand strategic one.

Secondly, to seek more debt relief, great market access and an economic package. Although the Bush administration has arranged a bilateral debt write-off of one billion dollars since Sept. 11, 2001, Pakistan believes the Americans should do more to reward Islamabad for its cooperation in the war on terror since, as Musharraf said on Sunday in an interview, "many Pakistanis feel short-changed by Washington."

Pakistan expects the United States to waiver the remaining 1.8 billion dollar bilateral debt registering five percent of its total foreign debt.

Washington is willing to provide Islamabad debt support but it is reluctant to offer trade concessions. Therefore, Musharraf will ask the US side for more market access for Pakistani goods.

It is reported that during Musharraf's visit, the two sides will work out a "worthwhile" five-year economic package which will look at the possibility of enhancing US investment in Pakistan and improving the bilateral trade which at present stands less than five billion dollars a year.

The two sides will sign two major agreements. One is the trade and investment framework agreement (TIFA) and the other is on science and technology. The Pakistanis believe that the TIFA will ultimately lead to a free trade agreement which is more useful than any strategic alliance.

Thirdly, to seek US military assistance or at least to push Washington to lift its military embargo imposed on Islamabad in the 1990s. During his talks with Bush, Musharraf will surely put forward the frozen weaponry deal for which many Pakistanis could not forgive Washington for refusing to deliver 28 F-16 fighters because of its concerns over Pakistan's nuclear program.

Another concern Musharraf may feel obliged to express to the US side is the further increase in the conventional arms disparity between Pakistan and India. Washington on May 22 endorsed the sale of Israel's Phalcon airborne early warning system to India. The estimated one billion US dollar sale of three most sophisticated systems will greatly enhance India's air surveillance capabilities.Thus Musharraf will try to get augmented assistance in the defense sector from the United States.

Lastly while not the least important, to expand cooperation in curbing terrorism. As the leader of a key ally and "frontline" state in the US-led anti-terror coalition as Pakistan has always claimed, Musharraf will be given a special reception by Bush at Camp David, a place where the US president invites only special guests to accord them special but informal protocol and attention.The two leaders could not avoid the topic on terrorism.

US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Robert Mueller arrived in Islamabad last month and held a "crucial" meeting with Pakistani Interior Minister Makhdoom Faisal Saleh Hayat. They discussed an expansion plan of the agency's operations in Pakistan to curb terrorist elements. US officials have sought Pakistan's cooperation to institutionalize FBI's role in the country by establishing an active coordination between the agency and Pakistan's intelligence sectors.

The Pak-Indo relations will also be talked over when the two leaders meet. Diplomatic sources here said Musharraf will go to Washington with a "composite dialogue" with India which goes beyond Pakistan's traditional stance that Kashmir should be settled first before other issues are discussed.

Instead, Pakistan is now proposing "simultaneous talks on all issues." However, diplomatic sources warned that it would be wrong to expect a breakthrough especially in resolving the Kashmir dispute during Musharraf's visit.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri has made it very clear that Pakistan is seeking "a multi-tier" relationship with the United States and Musharraf's visit could prove to be a "turning point" or "milestone" in Pak-US relations and would pave the way for long-term ties to the benefit of the Pakistani people.

(Xinhua News Agency June 16, 2003)