An election in Chechnya this weekend is the final stage in a Kremlin plan to make the turbulent region a normal part of Russia. Few people expect it to succeed.

The region's 11-year war, which President Vladimir Putin calls an anti-terrorist operation, has killed tens of thousands, ruined the local economy and shattered regional capital Grozny.

Since crushing large-scale Chechen resistance in 2000, Moscow has organized two presidential polls -- the second to find a new president after the first was killed -- and a referendum to anchor the region in Russia.

Sunday's election to a local legislative assembly is intended to complete that process.

"We need a parliament because that is the law. No civilised society can live without one," said Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov, a candidate from the pro-Kremlin United Russia party in Chechnya. He is tipped to be speaker of the assembly.

"The time for fighting over land is past," he told Reuters.

But separatist rebels continue daily attacks -- including more and more forays beyond Chechnya's borders -- and say an election they call a farce will not deter them.

Meanwhile, human rights groups say a new threat has emerged from local strongmen to whom Moscow, anxious to scale back its military presence, has contracted out many of its operations.

The most powerful is Ramzan Kadyrov, deputy premier of the local government. He controls thousands of irregular troops accused by rights groups of abduction and murder.

Strongman for president?

The poll is seen cementing his grip on the region.

"If as a result of the elections Ramzan Kadyrov gains a parliament loyal to him -- something few people doubt -- then his position in Chechnya will be even stronger," said Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily.

Russia scrapped elections for regional governors last year, giving local assemblies a role approving Putin's choice for leader. Whoever controls the assembly controls the region.

"After some time Kadyrov could really announce his intentions to be president of the republic," said the daily.

Human rights groups, including Russia's Memorial and the international Helsinki group, said in a report Kadyrov's forces and the federal troops were to blame for intimidation which made holding a meaningful election impossible.

"This imitation of an electoral process... will not serve to stabilise the situation. It will only prolong this lasting crisis and help the blood-letting continue," said the report.

Kadyrov denies the activists' charges, saying his accusers secretly side with the perpetrators of numerous suicide bombings and last year's Beslan tragedy, when an attack on a school killed 330 people -- half of them children.

Troops have said they will ensure security for the poll, but a rebel envoy said there were no plans to disrupt the vote.

"I do not think we will take any extreme steps. Military actions against the occupiers and collaborators will continue under the already-agreed autumn-winter plan," Umar Khambiyev, a rebel envoy in Europe, told Reuters.

"After this farce of an "election", like after all the others, the situation in Chechnya will not change at all. I don't think there are people in Chechnya who believe it will."

(Chinadaily.com via Agencies November 25, 2005)