Since the death of the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in November, and since the elections in the Palestinian territory on January 9, the Palestinian-Israeli situation has been more or less stable. 

Interference and unfavorable elements from hardliners on both sides have not disrupted the fragile tranquility between the two long-time foes.

Palestine's domestic situation has also not turned into chaos, as previously predicted.

On March 17 during a meeting in Cairo, Egypt, the leaders of various Palestinian armed factions agreed to continue a ceasefire with Israel. That agreement came four days after the Israeli Cabinet announced its decision to demolish 24 illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank that were built after March 2001.

These seemingly tangible "signs of peace" follow the efforts of the international community and various parties concerned.

The new US government under President George W. Bush has expressed its strong aspirations to push forward stalled peace talks.

In his State of the Union Address in early February, Bush promised to give US$350 million to the new Palestinian government, to help its security and economic work and back the peaceful coexistence of the two "democratic states."

At a NATO summit in late February, Bush strongly demanded all countries, including Israel, throw their weight behind the "democratic reform" of a Palestinian State.

In early February, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made her first overseas trip to Europe and the Middle East with Palestinian-Israeli peace talks firmly in her mind.

She met Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Abbas, and urged them to resume peace talks. She also extended an invitation to visit the United States.

Despite having leaned towards Israel for a long time, the US administration has also exerted some pressure upon its Middle East ally. During her trip, Rice hoped Israel would make the decision to create an ideal environment for peace talks and the establishment of a "Palestinian state."

On March 1, Britain held a conference in London in support of the reform of a Palestinian self-ruled government. Various parties promised to vigorously back the Palestinian government.

The United Nations (UN) has also played an active role brokering and pushing along the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.

In mid March, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan made a trip to the violence-ridden region, holding meetings with Sharon and Abbas. He discussed with them, respectively, the restarting of the "peace roadmap" and the setting up of a Palestinian state.

On March 23, he made a speech at the 17th summit meeting of the League of Arab States, appealing for a peaceful settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Annan also stressed that talks serve as the best way to end conflict and that the "returning violence with violence" formula would only bring about more disaster for their people.

Active efforts made by Israelis and Palestinians have also produced positive results.

On February 8, leaders of the two sides held their highest-level meeting in four years. Both sides reached a ceasefire deal at the meeting and made goodwill gestures.

Abbas promised Sharon he would continue to coordinate stances among various Palestinian factions to promote the permanent end of Palestinian attacks aimed at Israelis. In return, Sharon promised to continue to push for the release of detained Palestinians and the handover of the control of some cities in the West Bank to Palestinians.

Abbas's popularity among Palestinians has also effectively unified various Palestinian factions and checked radical behavior.

Because of his efforts, Hamas and other Islamic groups have reached an initial consensus on a temporary halt to violence against Israelis and have begun to participate in Palestinian politics.

Given the complicated element to the longtime conflict, the prospect of peace talks between them is not that optimistic.

The two sides are still at a standstill on some issues, such as the return of Palestinian refugees, boundary demarcation, the status of Jerusalem, demolition of Jewish settlements, and distribution of water resources.

On these thorny issues all the parties involved face strong opposition domestically.

The US administration has expressed its support of talks and the "democratic reform" of a Palestinian State, but in essence wants to set up an example for its "Great Middle East" program.

In late March, the Israeli Defense Ministry confirmed Israel would continue to build new settlements in the West Bank to strengthen control of Jerusalem and neighboring regions.

The Palestinians expressed their outrage.

Palestinian militants have agreed to an informal truce reached in February, but they have refused to lay down their weapons.

On Friday, thousands of Muslims and many Hamas supporters gathered in the Gaza Strip for demonstrations to oppose Jewish extremists' plans to march on the disputed Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City, a site sacred to Jews and Muslims.

"If Zionist extremists carry out their threat to invade the Al-Aqsa mosque, it will inflame the region and end the truce," the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade said in a statement.

On Saturday, Israeli troops fired on a group of Palestinian youths in a Gaza refugee camp, killing three teenagers in the deadliest incident in the Gaza Strip since the two sides declared a ceasefire two months ago.

The shooting shattered weeks of calm between the two sides.

Palestinian leader Abbas said the shooting was Israel's violation of its truce with Palestinians.

The violence also came ahead of Sharon's departure on Sunday for a meeting with US President Bush.

Palestinian militants said they reserved the right to respond to the shooting. Hours after the incident, militants fired about 30 mortar shells at Jewish settlements in Gaza and fired at soldiers in southern Gaza.

All these uncertain elements, if not effectively curbed, will upset the restarted Palestinian-Israeli talks.

(China Daily April 12, 2005)