The country is expected to experience continuous warm weather during the next 50 to 100 years, and the weather in the north will become still drier, posing serious threats to the country's ecosystem and economy, a Chinese scientist has warned.

Climate changes over the past century reflected the pattern of global warming seen around the world and the trend will continue for the next 50 to 100 years, said Qin Dahe, a leading glacier researcher and meteorologist.

Qin, also director of the China Meteorological Administration, predicts that the average temperature in China will rise 1.7 degrees centigrade between 2020 and 2030, and 2.2 degrees between 2030 and 2050. Northern areas may record warmer weather than the south.

The southern parts of the northeast and north, densely populated area with large cities such as Beijing and Tianjin, could experience dry weather during this period, he noted.

This area has been suffer-ing from increasingly dry weather as total rainfall has gradually decreased since the 1950s. The signs of global warming have become more significant since the entire country has undergone 16 consecutive "warm winters" since 1985.

The effects of warm weather on the ecosystem and on the country's economy could be "unbearable, irreversible and persistent," he said at the annual session of the China Association for Science and Technology.

The sea level has kept rising at an average rate of 2.6 millimeters during the past half-century, making the country's long coastal areas more vulnerable to floods and storms.

The farming industry in this country may see simultaneous increases in invest-ment and output reductions if the bad weather persists.

Excessive emission of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels was cited as the major cause of global warming.

At the recently concluded Earth Summit, Premier Zhu Rongji announced that China has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement committed to reducing greenhouse gases emission all over the world.

(eastday.com September 9, 2002)