China plans to create nine million new jobs and to help five million laid-off workers become re-employed in 2004, Minister of Labor and Social Security Zheng Silin said Monday. But some experts said the government's statistics fail to reflect the true unemployment situation. 

China plans to create nine million new jobs and to help five million laid-off workers become re-employed in 2004, Minister of Labor and Social Security Zheng Silin said Monday.

Next year, China will spare no efforts to control the urban unemployment rate at around 4.7 percent, Zheng told a national conference on labor and social security work held Monday.

Though China has fulfilled its goal of employment and re-employment assigned for this year + eight million new jobs and re- employment for four million laid-off workers, next year's targets are more challenging.

"While trying to achieve the goals we should bear in mind that at all times creating more jobs is high on the government's agenda,'' he said. The ministry believes the country is certain of meeting this year's unemployment objective.

Following the just-concluded national conference on the work relating to talented personnel, the meeting vowed to reinforce its re-employment services in the coming year, especially to provide more vocational training. Specifically, 100,000 people will get skill training, and 300,000 people will receive training to set up their own businesses, Zheng said.

But Professor Zeng Xiangquan, from the Renmin University of China, said the government's statistics fail to reflect the true unemployment situation.

He said most Chinese labour experts believe that when including the unregistered jobless and laid-off workers, China's real unemployment rate would be as high as 15 per cent -- and it will continue to rise.

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labour Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also predicted that China's unemployment rate will jump higher as the country furthers its economic reforms in over-staffed State firms.

The forecast followed the ministry's recent announcement that all re-employment service agencies in seven provinces and municipalities including Beijing and Shanghai will be closed.

The service, which was introduced nationwide in 1998 as an interim programme to help millions of laid-off workers from loss-making State-owned enterprises (SOEs), is scheduled to be phased out by the end of next year.

Lay-offs from SOEs, who are usually paid meagre sums to cover basic living necessities in line with three-year contracts with re-employment agencies, are not included in the national unemployment figures.

The closure of re-employment agencies means a large proportion of the 3.1 million people on their books will be added to the jobless rolls, Cai said.

Including laid-offs, college graduates and migrant workers are also set to create problems next year.

An additional 2.8 million university graduates are expected to flood into China's already-crowded labour market in 2004.

Ran Qing, a collage graduate learning cosmetology in Tianjin, told China Daily she has been experiencing the chill of the labour market.

"I've attended nearly all major job fairs in Beijing and Tianjin to try and land a job since September but have had no success so far,'' said Ran.

She said there have been minimal opportunities for her at the fairs. "I basically have no chance from the start.''

Zeng warned that university graduates need to reduce their expectations and design reasonable career development plans to meet the tight labour situation.

Latest statistics show the starting annual salary of university graduates dropped by 40 per cent in 2003 compared with the previous year.

Zeng said it is normal that returns on educational investment drops as the number of university graduates increases.

(People's Daily December 23, 2003)