Optimists believe this is a necessary process for achieving agricultural modernization. But pessimists regard it as a disorderly flow of labourers, which will have a negative influence on social stability and employment in cities.

A correct understanding of the phenomenon is important for governments at all levels, said an article in China Business Times.

A comprehensive study should take into consideration the historical background nurturing large-scale migration, the trend of future development and the important role played by the farmers-turned-workers in the country's economic development.

Statistics reveal there are currently 86 million rural people working or doing business in cities during the year, among which 6 million started this year. The total rural population moving to the cities is around 130 million. Most of the farmer workers are from central and western areas that are the country's grain production bases.

Among the transient labourers, the majority are aged between 20-34 -- the number of those aged above 40 has been declining. At the same time, the number of people with junior middle school education or above, or with special skills, is increasing. The latest census indicates that among transient labourers, 56.7 per cent have received junior middle school education while 30 per cent received special labour skills training.

The majority of rural workers, that is 52.5 per cent, are engaged in tertiary industries, or the service sector, while 44.5 per cent are in secondary or manufacturing industries. Some itinerant workers have become big private business owners, becoming role models for their peers.

Large-scale migration of farmers began in the 1980s.

Traditional Chinese culture teaches people to stay in their hometown with emigration a last resort. Furthermore, in the feudal society, emperors of each dynasty regarded agriculture as the lifeline for the country. To ensure there were enough labourers for farming, they passed strict laws to lock farmers to land and suppress commercial development.

In the early period after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country's industrialization followed the model of the former Soviet Union and tilted in favour of heavy industry in cities. For a long time, the rural population was excluded from the industrialization and urbanization process.

Under the planned economic system, the free flow of the means of production -- labour and land -- was prohibited by the adoption of the People's Commune system, which enabled the nation to concentrate its limited resources on the development of heavy industry.

The adoption of residence registration system, or hukou, made it impossible for farmers to migrate to cities.

Successful rural reform has enabled farmers to find employment outside the agriculture sector, according to the article.

After 1978, the rural household contract responsibility system was promoted and replaced the People's Commune system, and the collective use right to land was transferred to individual households. As well as winning the independent land use right, farmers were also freed to seek employment outside agriculture. On the other hand, the rural reform also resulted in the dramatic increase in grain production and ended the long-term short supply under the planned economic system. The shortage of farm products used to be an important reason why the government chose to restrict the movement of the rural population to cities. Increased food supply eliminated that obstacle.

Responding to the reform and opening-up policies, coastal areas led the country in developing export-orientated labour-intensive processing industries, which required lots of labour. Since the 1990s, when the country's economic reform and development moved on to a fast track, overseas-funded and domestic private businesses achieved rapid development, which further expanded demand for labour.

These combined to create a flood of rural people into cities, the article stated.

The Engle coefficient indicates that with economic progress and the increase of people's income, the share of food in people's consumption declines. As a country advances towards modernization, the share of its agricultural sector in gross domestic product also declines, which has been confirmed by the economic development experience of other countries.

When China's industrialization and modernization reaches a higher stage, the economic structure also readjusts and is characterized by increased shares of secondary and tertiary industries. The employment structure needs to keep pace with the re-adjusted industrial structure, and the urbanization process should keep pace with the industrialization process.

The movement of the rural population to cities and non-farming sectors is in line with demand.

Farm produce is a daily necessity and therefore has limited price flexibility. Increased grain production would lead to declining prices. When the desire of farmers to get rich through farming is hindered by a limited market and limited land resources, it is natural that some of them choose to seek opportunities outside agriculture.

How should governments at all levels deal with the flood of rural labourers to cities?

The Chinese Government's economic conference last year stated the cross-regional flow of rural workers and their employment in cities is important to integrating the urban and rural economy, and in establishing a unified labour market. Governments at all levels should give guidance and management, instead of blocking the flow of labour brutally. And no discriminative employment policies should be used against rural labourers.

The central economic conference this year called on local governments to be fair in their treatment to migrant workers.

In past years, central government policies on the movement of the rural population has been re-adjusted in line with economic conditions -- from restriction to permission, from controlling flow blindly to actively organizing orderly and reasonable movement, and finally to aiming for an integrated rural and urban labour market.

The large-scale migration of the rural population to cities is a natural process promoting industrialization, urbanization as well as social and economic progress. Governments at all levels should have a correct understanding of the phenomenon and improve their management and services for migrant workers, urged the article.

(China Daily April 30, 2003)