The country is standing on the verge of an AIDS epidemic, said Qi Xiaoqiu, head of the Department of Disease Control of the Ministry of Health, in an official assessment of the problem.

"It is estimated that the total HIV positive population stood at almost one million" at the end of June, Qi told a briefing,

"It's very difficult to get the exact number, but we can tell you that AIDS is at a very dangerous stage in China and on the verge of becoming an epidemic," he said.

According to a UN report released in June, China could have around 1.5 million people carrying HIV, the virus which causes AIDS, and faces an "AIDS catastrophe" if a proper course of action is not taken.

Qi said China could see around a million more HIV cases every year this decade if nothing is done.

"If the AIDS epidemic is not dealt with efficiently, by the year 2010 there is the likelihood of more than 10 million HIV or AIDS patients in China," he said.

While HIV and AIDS are spreading rapidly in China, the growth rate is falling, at least for the time being, according to official figures.

The late-June figure marks a rise of about 17 percent over six months, while last year's overall growth rate was as high as 58 percent, Qi said.

Although China currently has a relatively low infection rate of about 0.08 percent, that is no reason for complacence given China's huge population of 1.3 billion, according to Qi.

"Even if the percentage is quite low, it's still becoming a serious problem now in China," he said.

For instance, China already has the fourth largest number of cases in all of Asia, he said.

China can be divided into three distinct geographic areas in terms of the typical causes of AIDS, Qi said.

In the western part of China, like Yunnan province bordering on the "Golden Triangle" opium producing region, it has spread on the back of rampant drug abuse.

In the center of the country, large numbers have been infected through tainted blood collections, while in the boom cities of the east coast, it is mainly transmitted sexually, he said.

Despite growing recognition in China of the scope of the problem, independent AIDS activists are often treated with suspicion bordering on hostility.

Wan Yanhai, one of China's most prominent AIDS activists, has been arrested for allegedly revealing state secrets, his wife said Friday.

Although Wan previously worked at an educational institution under the health ministry, Qi said he had no knowledge of his whereabouts.

"We know him and had contacts with him (when he worked at the institution)," he said. "However, he has left the institution, and since then we've had no contact."

Qi defended the Chinese government's record on fighting AIDS, saying the June figure of one million patients would have been "far" larger if it had not been for the official efforts.

But China is not helped in its battle to curb AIDS by local governments' unwillingness to provide exact figures and individuals' reluctance to come forward, he said.

The reported cases of HIV only stand at about 30,000, a tiny fraction of even the government's estimate.

Even more dramatically, there are just 1,900 reported AIDS cases, sharply lower than an official estimate of 200,000, Qi said.

Residents of villages particularly hard hit by HIV are also opposed to excessive publicity, according to Qi.

"Some see AIDS as a household scandal," he said. "Their vegetables can't be sold in the market when people hear they come from an AIDS village, and migrants from the village can't find jobs."

(China Daily September 6, 2002)