Large foreign direct investment (FDI) contracts flowed back to China in December to enable the nation's 2003 FDI record to rise a hard-won 1.44 percent from the previous year, to reach US$53.5 billion in paid-in terms, according to the Ministry of Commerce Wednesday.

The manufacturing industry continued to be a star performer, garnering 70 percent of the total investment.

This ended the debate whether China, the world's largest FDI recipient in 2002, would see a negative growth in capital imports after it experienced two-digit falls for five straight months since July.

But December's strong revival in FDI influx put an end to the downward trend. The ministry did not specify the December data. But according to industry analysts, FDI in December reached US$6.35 billion, rising 24.8 percent year-on-year.

"Electronics, telecom equipment, chemicals and machinery were the hottest areas in the manufacturing industry last year, and the trend is unlikely to change in 2004,'' Jin Bosheng, director of the foreign investment research department of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told China Daily.

He added that he believed the December surge indicates the weakening of repercussions from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak which threatened the nation's economy in the earlier months of 2003.

In a region-by-region analysis, Shanghai and the three provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shandong were the top FDI destinations last year.

Jin, who remained optimistic that FDI would not be lower than the 2002 level, predicted in September that a boom cycle would come at the turn of the year.

He said that the number has been a significant achievement, since the global capital flow dropped this year because of a gloomy world economic climate.

The number was, however, lower than an internal target of US$57 billion.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global FDI flows in 2003 remained flat, at US$653 billion, and China's share was 8 percent of it.

Statistics from UNCTAD reveal that China, which replaced the United States as the world's largest FDI recipient in 2002 for the first time, in turn lost its title to the US.

FDI flows to the US tripled to US$86.6 billion last year.

In the meantime, a debate still continues over whether China will slow down in 2004, although Jin added that "momentum is still robust.''

The number of foreign investment contracts showed that lots of money is waiting to flow into China, he said. Contracted foreign investment in 2003, an indicator of future trends, was US$115 billion, soaring 39 percent from a year earlier, the ministry said.

"China will continue to be a hot destination for FDI, since no drastic change happens in its favorable macro-situation,'' Jin said.

He explained that China is maintaining strong economic performance, quick foreign trade growth and expanding opening areas to investors.

China is also maintaining a stable political situation and secure investment environment, whereas many other countries are troubled by fears of terrorism and other matters.

"More destinations favored by foreign investors like the Yangzte River Delta and Pearl River Delta will be forged when foreign investors move some industries outside developed countries," he said, and predicted that FDI will hit US$70 billion this year.

However, some economists still do not look favorably on China. Hui Tai, an economist with Standard Chartered, said FDI would slow this year because of fewer big deals.

(China Daily January 15, 2004)