The international strategy and general management consulting firm predicted that the market would more than triple from its current US$7 billion to over US$24 billion.

Data collected by the group indicate that China currently has the seventh-largest pharmaceutical market. The top six markets are in the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Italy.

The group announced on its website that China will achieve revenue of around US$14 billion by 2005, maintaining its seventh place. But, by 2010, it will outshine Britain and Italy to take the fifth place.

China's ongoing economic development and its membership of the World Trade Organization are the two major factors that are boosting China's fast growth in the pharmaceutical sector, according to an analysis by the group.

Several multinational pharmaceutical giants are attaching greater and greater importance to the Chinese market.

The Swiss-based health-care company Novartis AG plans to expand in China.

The company will further increase its investment in China from the current level of more than US$100 million and aims to become the third-biggest pharmaceutical company in China's hospital market, according to senior managers with Novartis.

James Liu, president of the Beijing Novartis Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, estimated that the company would maintain an annual sales growth of 15 to 20 percent sales in the Chinese market over the next five years.

Daniel Vasella, chairman and chief executive of Novartis, said he was very satisfied with his company's performance in China and looks forward to a brighter future.

While visiting Shanghai early this month, he told reporters that his confidence was based on the progress that China has gained in economic and social construction in recent years and, more importantly, the fact that the country is strengthening its protection of intellectual property rights, which encourages innovation in medicine development.

Novartis had total sales worth 833 million yuan (US$101 million) in the Chinese market in the first nine months of this year, an increase of 7.8 percent over the same period last year. The sales of its patent medicine products grew by 20.6 percent in the first nine months in China, making the biggest contribution to the firm's growth.

The company is to further expand its presence in China by strengthening medical research and development with its Chinese partners.

The company said it would strengthen its "co-operative and innovative" efforts in China to develop more new drugs, said Vasella.

(China Daily November 11, 2002)