The expectation by business insiders comes despite the first five months of this year being down compared with the same time in 2001.

"Domestic soybeans are in short supply and China will have to import more in the second half year," said Wang Aiyou, a senior researcher with the China Feed Industry Information Center.

The latest forecast by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center shows that the country will import 12 million tons between October and September 2003.

Wang told China Daily imports would most likely come from the United States, which has put together an extensive and sound sales network in China over the last decade.

China has been importing about US$1 billion worth soybeans from the US each year.

The majority of American soybeans are genetically modified organisms (GMO), which is considered a major problem and US traders are reluctant to supply China's market because of uncertainties created by the recent introduction of a series of Chinese GMO rules.

US statistics show China's soybean imports dropped by one-third year-on-year in the first five months of 2002.

A Beijing-based Western economics expert, who did not want to be named, said the sharp fall was mainly due to uncertainties created by China's introduction of the GMO statute.

But local analysts said the rules were a minor factor in the reduced soybean imports, as the biggest output of the US product came after October.

US soybean traders pre-dated contracts with Chinese firms last year in order to escape the first GMO statute, which was introduced in June last year and it exploded the statistical value of China's imports between the start of this year and May.

In January, China released details for implementing its first GMO statute, which was enacted in June 2001 to protect people, animals and the environment while advancing agro-biotechnology research.

Under the rules, safety certificates from the Ministry of Agriculture have to accompany GMO products entering China for research, production or processing.

The rules also require some types of altered soybean, corn, rape seed, cotton seed and tomatoes to be clearly labeled as GMO products when they hit the market.

US Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman and Chinese Agriculture Minister Du Qinglin agreed last month that the rules would not disrupt normal soybean trade between the two countries.

The Western expert suggested that China issued safety certificates before the end of October or extend the interim period for its GMO rules, which will end on December 20, to February or March so it would not disrupt trade.

But he said he was very doubtful whether safety certificates could be issued in time because ongoing field tests, which must be finished before certificates were given, usually took longer than time allowed.

（China Daily August 15, 2002）