Power output by Yangtze Power, operator of the Three Gorges hydroelectric dam, surged 73.5 percent last year, but analysts warn of a dimmer year ahead because high 2004 water levels are unlikely to be matched.

The Three Gorges dam, under construction since 1993 and producing power since mid-2003, is ramping up capacity year by year to help address China's crippling power shortage. Capacity at the world's largest hydropower project was about 2 percent of the nation's capability last year, and according to domestic media, is set to triple by 2009 to 22,400 megawatts.

Yangtze Electric Power Co. generated 35.8 million megawatt-hours (MWh) last year, up from 20.64 million MWh for 2003, it said in a statement, with more than half the output coming from the Three Gorges.

The company's fate is also closely tied to the level of the mighty Yangtze, the world's third-longest river, and the pace at which it brings additional capacity online.

It is immune to the surging price of coal, on which two-thirds of the country's power capacity depends. High coal prices have hurt rivals including top electricity producer Huaneng Power International.

"Yangtze Electric Power's output growth in 2004 was strong mainly because of good water levels," said Li Yuan at Haitong Securities.

"But 2004 was an exceptional year of strong water flow, so we don't believe 2005 will be as good."

Output in China, the world's second-largest electricity market, has struggled to keep up with demand, with brownouts hitting two-thirds of the country last summer.

Yangtze Electric Power, China's most valuable power firm, said its output at the Three Gorges Plant, shared with State parent Yangtze River Three Gorges Project Development Corp., stood at 18.8 million MWh last year.

Its 100-percent owned Gezhouba Dam Plant yielded the remaining 17 million MWh, it said.

"The main reasons for a jump in 2004 output included strong power demand propelled by sustained economic growth and constant, strong water flow," the listed firm said.

China generated 2.187 billion MWh of electricity last year, up 14.8 percent from the previous year, official figures show.

Power consumption rose 14.9 percent in the year to 2.1735 billion MWh, the China Electricity Council has reported.

(Shenzhen Daily January 11, 2005)