China's energy demand growth rate is expected to slow down next year, with the government's efforts to curb energy consumption intensive industries taking effect, executives from State oil and power companies said yesterday.

Refined oil product consumption in China is likely to reach 157 million tons by the end of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 19 per cent, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) officials revealed at a work conference on State-owned enterprises yesterday in Beijing.

That growth rate, however, is expected to drop to 8.3 per cent in 2005, with the full-year consumption reaching 170 million tons.

On power industry front, China's power consumption is set to increase by 12 per cent year-on-year to 2.43 trillion kilowatt-hours next year, according to Liu Zhenya, general manager of State Grid Corporation, which supplies electricity to two-thirds of the country.

The power demand growth will be slower than that in the first eleven months of this year. During January to November of this year, consumption surged by 15 per cent to 1.9 trillion kilowatt-hours.

The expected energy demand slow-down reflects the country's efforts to hold back the pace of economic growth.

China's GDP growth is likely to drop from an expected 9 per cent this year to an estimated 8 per cent in 2005, experts said.

As the economy roars ahead, energy consumption surged this year, leading to a wide-spread energy supply crunch.

Starting in April this year, the government began efforts to cool down the economy by curbing rampant investment in many energy-consumptive industries such as steel, cement and aluminium.

Liu said the power shortages are likely to ease next year because of a demand growth slowdown and new power plants placed into operation, Liu said.

The power supply shortfall in peak consumption periods is likely to reach 20,000 megawatts, a slight drop from 20,780 megawatts this year, according to Liu.

"While the rest of the country will see a balanced supply and demand, (power shortage in) eastern and northern China are still a thorny problem," Liu said.

East China, one of the country's economic powerhouses, is to see supply fall short of 14,000 megawatts next year. Still, the shortage is less than 17,000 megawatts this year.

On the oil side, companies are stepping up production to satisfy the increasing demands forecast for 2005.

China's crude oil production should rise by 2.3 per cent to 176 million tons in 2005, with the crude running up 8.7 per cent to 280 million tons, said Chen Tonghai, general manager of China Petrochemical Corp.

CNPC, which makes up 64 per cent of the nation's total oil output, is expected to produce 111.6 million tons of crude this year.

By November, the company had produced 102.4 million tons of crude, up 2.2 million tons from the same period last year.

CNPC also saw an increase of 15 per cent in natural gas production in the first 11 months, hitting 25.9 billion cubic metres.

By the end of 2004, CNPC has the crude oil stock of 5 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons.

The stock of refined oil products top 3 million tons, up 340,000 tons.

"The steady stock of crude oil and refined oil products helps to buffer the shock from the huge fluctuations of crude oil prices on the international market," the company said.

The CNPC is stepping up exploration of crude oil and natural gas reserves in China, especially in the western areas.

At yesterday's conference, Chen also refuted the comment that China's robust economy had led to the soaring crude oil prices seen in the international markets.

"China's increasing demands for crude oil in 2004 only account for 16 per cent among the overall increases in the world, much lower than the 30 per cent from the United States," Chen said, "The direct reasons lie in the depreciation of US dollar, and the speculative business of international investment funds also contributed to the rising crude oil prices on the international market."

(China Daily December 15, 2004)