Chinese regulators have stepped up their efforts to curb ferocious price wars among telecom operators.

However, analysts say the move may not have substantial impact on telecom market competition.

The Ministry of Information Industry (MII) and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) late last month issued a circular which asked all operators, either fixed-line or cellular, to inspect their subsidiaries to prevent price wars.

The circular requires that operators' branches across the country seek approval from their respective headquarters prior to any price cuts, short-period promotions, tariff packages or handset leasing, which are not in line with the government-set basic telecom billing system.

The government's long-held billing system has been eroded by promotions and tariff packages in a variety of ways.

For example, some branches of operators introduced tariff packages which makes mobile conversations within their networks three times cheaper than mobile talks outside their cellular networks, according to media reports.

Regulators say such activity is harmful to free competition.

However, analysts believe the regulator's latest move is unlikely to curb such price wars.

"The circular is more a symbolic move than an effective tool to curb price wars. And it is unlikely to achieve the desired results,'' said Guo Chang, a telecom analyst with CCW Research.

"Operators will have much difficulty in pressing their subsidiaries to stop price cuts and tariff packages.''

If subsidiaries, which are the major revenue contributors to operators, do not have a say in pricing, they will find it hard to achieve the revenue and subscription targets which their headquarters have set for them, the analyst explained.

China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom are under pressure to maintain revenue and subscription growth as they are listed companies.

And China Netcom is on the way to becoming listed.

Regulators' proposed moves to curb price wars would falter due to operators' acquiescence and branches' defiance, said another Beijing-based telecom professional, who asked not to be named.

"Such a move will do little to curb price cuts. It's not the first time that the regulators have entered the telecom pricing arena,'' he said.

"Price cuts are a natural and competitive way for operators to expand their subscriber base.''

Cellular duopoly China Mobile and China Unicom would not adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards Xiaolingtong's erosion into their business, he explained.

Xiaolingtong, or personal handy access (PHS), is a low-priced limited mobility service aggressively promoted by fixed-line carriers China Telecom and China Netcom.

Except in major cities, mobile billing charges usually drop wherever Xiaolingtong is introduced.

The number of Xiaolingtong subscribers reached 37 million at the end of last year, with the figure expected to hit 60 million by the end of this year.

Prices cuts seem also to be unavoidable between China Mobile and Unicom.

The government allows Unicom to charge 10 percent less for the mobile conversation than China Mobile as Unicom has a much smaller subscription base.

But Unicom always has to introduce tariff packages to prevent its subscribers switching to China Mobile.

The scale of subscriptions is critical to telecom operators' business.

A larger subscription base can help operators share costs and ensure future revenue growth.

According to recent survey findings conducted by research firm BDA China, more than 16 percent of Unicom's GSM subscribers plan to switch to a new operator on the expiry of their existing contracts.

More than 10 percent of China Unicom's CDMA users and China Mobile's subscribers have similar plans.

The survey also found that more than half of Unicom's CDMA users would not have selected their service, if it were not for the free handsets and subscription subsidies offered by Unicom.

Moreover, 36 percent of China Mobile's users also subscribe to Xiaolingtong.

Fewer price cuts and tariff packages will bring more benefits to China Mobile than Unicom in a long term, said Han Lele, an analyst with Analysis Consulting.

Without such promotions, Unicom may find it harder to recruit new subscribers and retain its existing users, he said.

"The circular is clearly intended to ensure fair competitions, but it's hard to predict whether the move will have a big impact on the market,'' Han said.

(China Business Weekly July 12, 2004)