Small jets flying regional routes are expected to account for a third of China's total aviation fleet in 20 years to meet surging demand, according to a research center announcement yesterday.

By 2025, civil air operators are projected to have added 800 regional jets, half of them capable of seating 60 to 100 passengers, the Aviation Industry Development Research Center of China said in its annual market forecast.

As the country's economy continues to thrive, the frequency local air travel will increase, driving the need for more aircraft, Wang Boxue, a senior researcher with the center, said.

Air travel increased by 35.2 percent year on year to reach 23 billion ton-kilometers in 2004, the third largest volume in the world. In the next two decades, the yearly growth rate is forecast to run at 8.4 percent, according to Wang.

To match this trend and support the national strategy of developing the western regions and revitalizing northeast China, the country will have to build a series of small and medium-sized airports, he said.

Most flights connect cities in the affluent east. The less developed west, particularly southwest China, where development and tourist opportunities are abundant, will become the fastest-growing air market in the future, Wang said.

In five years, the number of airports on the Chinese mainland will rise from 137 to 200, and further increase to 250 by 2020, according to the center's projections.

Turbo-fan regional jets have an advantage of operating in the point-to-point market that will be created by the new airports, Wang said. Since new air routes do not usually have stable passenger bases, using larger jets would undoubtedly lead to lower flight frequency and passenger take-up rates.

Turbo-fan regional aircraft allow air carriers to achieve an acceptable take-up rate and reduce operational risks, Wang said.

Smaller aircraft will also be increasingly used to replace larger jets operated by major airlines on less popular routes, as air companies are desperate to improve business performance.

Only 26 percent of China's air routes averaged two or more flights each day in 2004, and 59 percent had an average of less than one flight a day, according to statistics from the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China.

Despite the low flight frequency and passenger flow, planes with at least 100 seats were used on 71 percent of these routes.

Passengers will prefer turbo-fan regional jets with 60 to 100 seats to 50-seater aircrafts, he said.

As in other developed air markets, regional jets will play an important role in extending the geographic reach of major airline hubs and augmenting larger airplane operations during off-peak hours, Wang added.

Regional aviation last year accounted for 9.8 percent of the country's total passenger flow, according to Wang.

(China Daily September 27, 2005)