Some 10 years ago, an American scholar named Lester Brown voiced his doubts about China's continuing capability of feeding its own vast population. Now the government and scholars here are being reminded of that dire warning.

Premier Wen Jiabao said in his government work report last Friday that the Chinese government will exert itself to protect cropland acreage, halt the illegal use of farmland, and urge farmers to produce more grain in an effort to stabilize the country's grain production.

Some leading researchers and others attending the current second sessions of the 10th National People's Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the 10th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) responded to Wen's remarks by calling for a grain emergency mechanism, improving macro controls on grain production and correcting and improving grain distribution in domestic markets.

Yuan Longping, an agronomist famed for his success in breeding hybrid paddy rice and a member of the CPPCC National Committee, set China's annual grain output warning line at 485 million tons. Last year, farmers produced only 430 million tons.

Li Siheng, a researcher with the State Cereals Administration, warned that China's grain supply might fall short owing to years of lower yields, reduced state grain reserves and less grain stored by individual farmers. The country's grain output has been hovering around 450 million tons for the past four years, he recalled.

Last year was a turning point for China's grain security, as per capita grain output in the year fell below the 350-kilogram mark, the lowest per capita yearly average in a decade.

There were shortfalls of grain in the 1980s, until the government encouraged farmers to increase production by implementing market-oriented reforms. In 1998, the country's grain output hit a record high of over 500 million tons. The government announced proudly that China, with cropland amounting to only 7 percent of the world's total, was capable of feeding the world's largest population, or 22 percent of humankind.

But excess supply saturated the market and resulted in a drop in grain prices, which dampened farmers' enthusiasm. Local governments in some areas downsized farmland acreage to reduce grain output. Meanwhile, extensive infrastructure construction, urban development and mushrooming industrial parks all took huge bites out of grain crop acreage.

Nevertheless, China is still far from a grain crisis, noted Han Jun, an official of the Development Research Center under the State Council, as a balance between supply and demand has been maintained. Bumper grain harvests from 1995 to 1998 left a combined reserve of some 500 million tons, equal to the average annual output at present. This lays a solid foundation for the country's grain security, he said.

Vice Minister of Agriculture Zhang Baowen said the government is working very hard to increase the country's grain output to 460 million tons, with an increase of 60 kilograms per hectare targeted for 2005. A range of incentives will be issued to encourage grain growers.

Currently, government departments are working on amending laws and regulations related to land use in a bid to protect cultivated land strictly, said Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Office of the Leading Group on Financial Affairs of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee.

Meanwhile, the NPC Standing Committee has begun revising the Law on Land Management.

(Xinhua News Agency March 9, 2004)