On May 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his State of the Union Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian State Duma, the fourth time Putin has done so and the last of this term of presidency. What does he have in store for Russia? Gao Shuqin, an international relation researcher with a keen eye for Russian issues and now studying in Moscow presents her insights on the address. ---- Ed.

Several drafts later

Russia is intending to go to the polls on March 14, 2004 to hold a general election and so in the speech it was not surprising to see Mr. Putin placed great emphasis on subjects that will affect his re-election campaign. Given the changes in both domestic and international environments, the speech had been altered three times and came two months later than scheduled.

The Iraqi War last month brought great changes to the world’s situation in which Russia suffered heavy financial losses, and Mr. Putin had to change his planned tone, previously focused on his diplomatic successes.

Then, because the teachers, doctors as well as civil servants cannot get their salaries on time, the result of recent high inflation in Russia, the idea to put the economy and finance as a focus for the speech was also rethought. Later, Mr. Putin blamed all this on his Premier Mikhail Kasyanov and prepared to fire him so as to reduce the pressure by the time of the next general election. However, against such a background that global oil prices fell and Russia suffered difficulties in finance, it turned out that firing Kasyanov could only add one disaster on top of another. What’s more, Kasyanov’s cabinet is known to be steady and experienced, with his financial background adjusting what Mr. Putin lacks. Again, Putin had to rethink.

The Federal Assembly was held in the Marble Hall of the Kremlin. President Putin concluded the past, and looked forward to the future. When he came to work in the past three years, he said, “The president’s committee not only solved a series of problems, but also achieved some successes.” Besides these, Mr. Putin also described the blue print for the next ten years, which greatly surpasses his second term period.

In Putin’s words, there are still three important problems not yet solved from his first term including the population crisis, the economic recession and government construction. During the past three years, the birth rate increased by 18 percent, the teenage death rate kept the lowest in history while the natural death rate grew by 10 percent, and one fourth of the population led a life below the poverty line.

The focus of foreign policy

Mr. Putin said Russia was eager for stable world order in the foreseeable future, which would not only guarantee the peace of the region and the earth as a whole but also the progress of the world politics and economy.

“Today’s world faces various realistic and potential threats like global terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, regional conflicts and territory disputes,” he said. “Yet, some powers have not put their armies into the fight against terrorism, instead, using them to expand their sphere of influence.” Though Mr. Putin did not name names, the delegates present agreed he referred to the U.S.

Mr. Putin put it clearly that the Commonwealth of Independent States (former USSR states) is the zone of Russia's interests and Russian advantage in diplomacy. In addition, Russia will strengthen and promote the process of European integration. Hopefully Russia may cancel visas with other European nations in the near future. Mr. Putin emphasized the irreplaceable role of the UN in peace making activity. “The UN is a comprehensive organ to solve various international issues so that the UN should be maintained,” he said.

Step up military modernization

Mr. Putin put forward that Russia needs a strong professional army with advanced equipment to keep the peace and development of its nation. By 2007, Russia should complete the reform of the armed forces, developing modern military defense so as to enable its army with the most advanced weapons in the world.

He also analyzed and advocated for the future of globalization, and repeated the words, “Russia is sure to become…” which endow his State of the Union Address with idealism. Mr. Putin pledged to make Russia a sound market economy, stable democracy, a nation of civil society, and strong army, as well as human rights respected and protected.

Strengthen the governance of the Chechen Republic

As mentioned in Putin’s speech, Russia must crush the resistance of illegal militants in the Chechen Republic, and return a normal life to the people there. The public referendum held in March showed that the Chechen Republic is an inseparable part of the Russian Federation and is certain to unite. However, there’s still a long way to go to achieve normalization of the region. Mr. Putin stressed to revive Chechen’s economy and restore social order. He strengthened the governance of local affairs, and would sign an agreement with local government on separation of power when necessary. In addition, Putin tried to reduce the negative effects of the Chechen War as much as possible in order to win the next presidential election.

Quicken economic development

Compared with the State of the Union Address of 2001 and 2002, this year Putin talked in generalities. What’s worth noticing is that he mentioned the economic sector with a more cautious manner. After all, Russia’s economic development greatly depends on the international market.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia in the past three years increased by 20 percent, fixed-asset investments jumped over 30 percent, and foreign trade volume rose by 25 percent. Putin pointed out that the main problems of Russia’s economy were low income of its citizens, increasing unemployment, and unstable and lowering economic growth.

Putin also outlined Russia’s future economic development. He said that the three tasks which have to be achieved before 2010 were to double Russia’s GDP, eliminate poverty and complete the modernization of national defense. In order to become integrated into the world economy, the ruble, Russia’s currency, has to be convertible in the world economy, so that Russia can easily take passports and rubles overseas for tours or businesses. To become one of the world powers, Russia has to make all its industries competitive in the rest of the world.

Reform government body

In his speech, Putin reiterated to reform the government institution. He said that the Russian government not only needs to combat its bureaucratic working style, but also to eliminate official monopoly. Currently, there are lots of monopoly in many fields, but competent managing people are in short in governments of different levels, seriously hindering Russia’s social and economic development.

In his speech, Mr. Putin emphasized again and again the importance to consolidate the unification of Russia, speed up the construction of market economy mechanisms, carry out legal reform, and perfect election law, which will lay the foundation for realization of a civil society and powerful parties.

(China.org.cn translated by Zheng Guihong and Tang Fuchun, May 23, 2003)