Gambling on the North Korean Card

It must have come as quite a surprise to other countries with an interest in the Korean Peninsula when in mid-August the Japanese Foreign Ministry announced the visit. Relations between Japan and North Korea had not seen anything remotely resembling a breakthrough since back in the 1990s. This being despite no fewer than 11 rounds of talks on normalization up to October 2000.

Bilateral tensions had been fueled by the North Korean spy fishing boat incident and missing Japanese citizens. Then there was the background of a North Korean missile program and nuclear development. Understandably Japanese policy had firmed up towards North Korea over the past year or so amid strong Japanese criticism of a perceived North Korean threat to Japanese security.

The US, Japan and South Korea were already cooperating on North Korea. In addition, earlier this year US President George W. Bush took a hard line when he branded North Korea alongside Iraq and Iran as a part of an “axis of evil.” No doubt bilateral relations between Japan and North Korea and also those between South Korea and North Korea have been influenced by the US stance. For example South Korea’s “Sunshine Policy” was undermined and the second North and South Korean Summit scheduled for 2001 was delayed.

Meanwhile, Japan was busy investigating the North Korean spy fishing boat raised from the seabed in the East China Sea and blaming North Korea for violating international law.

While the world might well have anticipated continuing difficulties in Japan’s relations with North Korea, Koizumi suddenly opted for the diplomatic visit. By doing so he took the lead for Japan within the framework of US, Japan and North Korea relations.

As matter of fact, the reasons behind the move are not at all complicated. Koizumi just wanted to make some progress in overseas diplomacy to bolster his low approval rates in Japan.

The Japanese media took the view that Koizumi’s North Korean visit should be seen in the same light as Japanese ex-Prime Minister, Kakuei Tanaka’s 1972 China tour. This was said at the time to have been undertaken to win points for his political career.

However Koizumi’s Pyongyang tour was a serious political risk. North Korean leaders are well known for their stubborn hard-line approach. What if Koizumi had failed to persuade North Korea to accept Japan’s demands? This would have seen his Pyongyang trip turn out to be nothing but a failed gamble further denting his already shaky public image at home.

History Smiles on Koizumi

Food supply problems caused by a combination of bad weather and a centralized economy have led North Korea to initiate a series of economic reforms. In August rationing for its 22 million people gave way to a system of market prices and higher wages.

North Korea is becoming more and more flexible and pragmatic in both foreign and domestic policy. In an effort to develop the nation’s economy, break its diplomatic isolation and strengthen dialogue with South Korea, the North Korean leader is seeking change and innovation. It is this climate of change of North Korea that has worked so well to Koizumi’s advantage.

On September 17, when Koizumi landed in North Korea, he must have been apprehensive. After all he was shouldering heavy political pressure back home coupled with the diplomatic uncertainty of his visit. He needed North Korea explanations on the missing Japanese. This had been his promise to the families and his Pyongyang tour was now attracting the attention of the whole country.

Yet no matter what the outcome, this was destined to be a historical meeting. From the moment Japan and North Korea decided to hold the summit, Koizumi and Kim were assured of a place in the history of Japan-North Korea relations.

In the event the Japan-North Korea summit has turned out to be an unprecedented success. Longstanding problems going back dozens of years were readily resolved.

Koizumi made an apology for Japan’s colonial rule (1910-45). He expressed his deep sorrow and regret and this was written into the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration. Besides, Koizumi cleverly replicated an approach taken by Japan on the occasion of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung’s 1998 visit to Japan. He arranged for the matter of the compensation asked for by North Korea to be provided in the form of grants and low-interest-loans. Although the declaration does not specify the amounts involved, the figure will reach US$10 billion according to a Japanese government official.

The most dramatic progress was made on the outstanding issue of the alleged abduction of Japanese nationals. The North Koreans provided information on the fate of 11 people said to have been abducted to North Korea, four of whom were confirmed to be still alive. Chairman Kim Jong-il acknowledged that the incidents were the work of individuals affiliated with North Korea and offered an apology. He confirmed that those involved had already been punished and pledged that such incidents would never be repeated.

These key issues having been satisfactorily addressed, the two sides agreed to resume normalization talks in October.

The most moving moment came at Koizumi’s press conference in Pyongyang after the summit. Koizumi said, “I am pained to my very core when I think of those who were unable to come back to Japan and have passed away. I am at a loss for words when I think of the feelings of the bereaved family members.”

There is no doubt that history will long remember Koizumi for these words. However the reality is that Koizumi made the maximum political gain for the least risk

Still a Long Way to Go

The door has now been opened for talks to proceed at the highest diplomatic level. It is unlikely to close again. However Japan and North Korea still have a long way to go.

It is true that Koizumi has pulled off a diplomatic coup with this landmark summit. However this first step on the road to normalization may yet prove to have been the easiest one. Ultimate success will depend on normalization talks, which are still to come.

Reading between the lines of Koizumi’s one-day visit, it would seem that the time has not yet come for Japan to be ready to show signs of warmth in the developing relationship. That Koizumi was to be seen without a smile was no doubt indicative of the still early stage in the thaw in Japan-North Korea relations. No doubt it was intended to convey a Japanese sense of hurt and presents a realistic portrait of current Japan-North Korea relations.

Back in Japan, Koizumi has received a rather cautious welcome from ruling and opposition parties alike. For now they are maintaining a low-key approach to the future development of Japan-North Korea relations.

Meanwhile from the North Korean perspective, getting the Japanese economic aid at the right time and in the right way will be vital for future development.

In addition, the development of Japan-North Korea relations cannot be separated from the context of the cooperative relationship between US, Japan and South Korea. How to win US and South Korean support for his bid to improve relations with North Korea must now be engaging the attention of the Japanese Prime Minister. If Japan moves too fast the US will surely step in.

Already by September 16, the day before the historic visit, the American Ambassador to Japan had shown his country’s displeasure, saying Japan did not fully consult with the US. Given the Bush administration’s position on Iraq, the White House could not be expected to look favorably towards North Korea in the light of Pyongyang’s position on defense and its long running stance against US troops on the Korean Peninsula.

This very recent change of heart by North Korea has already attracted US skepticism. What does North Korea really want here, could it be badly needed economic aid or just to divert US pressure? Washington is trying to figure out whether Pyongyang's recent diplomatic magnanimity is sincere or just another tactical ruse.

On the matters that most concern Japan such as further relaxation of tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the issues of North Korean missiles and nuclear technology, Japan still needs the US. So Japan will proceed in cooperation with the US though we may well now anticipate more carrot and stick diplomacy designed to advance Japan-North Korea relations in Japan’s interests.

The phenomenon of a new thaw in Japan-North Korea relations will make it more difficult for the US to maintain a hard line policy towards North Korea.

(china.org.cn, translated by Zheng Guihong, October 2, 2002)