They say voters' declining confidence in the pro-independence party may serve as a setback to the hopes of Taiwan "president" Chen Shui-bian, also DPP chairman, for re-election in 2004 if his administration fails to improve its performance, as well as its mainland policy.

In Taipei's mayoral race, popular Ma Ying-jeou of the leading opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) easily crushed his DPP opponent Lee Ying-yuan to be re-elected as mayor of the biggest city. Ma took 873,102 votes, or more than 64 percent of the total, compared with 488,881 votes or 35 percent for Lee.

Incumbent Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh, from the DPP, pulled off a narrow victory by taking 386,384 votes -- just over half of all cast -- against 361,546 votes, or about 47 percent, for Huang Jun-ying from the KMT in a tight tussle for the island's second largest city.

"The voting results have apparently reflected voters' growing disappointment with the DPP administration's poor political and economic performance over the past two years," said Wu Nengyuan, director of the Institute of Modern Taiwan Studies at the Fujian Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

"In fact, the Taiwan public has voiced its dissent towards and sent a strong warning to the DPP against its much-flawed policies in fields ranging from financial reform to agriculture and cross-Straits relations."

Wu said Ma's easy and overwhelming win over his DPP opponent, despite an all-out campaign led by Chen himself, and Hsieh's narrow victory were signals that the capability of the DPP was under heavy doubt.

Besides a protracted economic slump and soaring jobless figures, Wu said the failure by the DPP to break the stalemate in cross-Straits ties has also greatly contributed to weakening support for the ruling party.

Wu said little progress has been made in developing bilateral relations because Chen has yet to come up with a viable mainland policy after almost three years in office.

"The flagging economy and record-high unemployment on the island should be partly blamed on Chen's hesitance to strengthen economic exchanges with the mainland," Wu said.

Taipei has been dragging its feet on the establishment of the three direct links -- trade, transport and postal services -- across the Taiwan Straits, although the links are widely expected to help the Taiwan economy recover from a recession.

Li Jiaquan, a senior researcher with the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the DPP's preoccupation with strong political ideology, especially in dealing with cross-Straits relations, heavily eroded support from moderate voters.

Li said that instead of taking steps to save the economy and improve cross-Straits relations, the election-minded DPP has resorted to pro-independence ideology in almost all major policies to attract separatist voters.

Li said the DPP attempt was characterized by its excessive promotion of local identity aimed at triggering ethnic trouble among the public and advancing hostility towards the mainland.

Since he took office in May 2000, Chen has been promoting "gradual Taiwan independence" through a "de-Sinofication" policy in ideology, culture, history, education and communication.

Both Wu and Li agree it remains unclear whether the setback in the weekend polls will force the DPP to make an adjustment to its ideology-orientated strategy and reshape its policy towards the mainland.

(China Daily December 9, 2002)