Beijing's population is likely to soar to 20 million by 2020,
largely because of the continued influx of migrants from other
parts of the country, experts predicted.
A report released by the Population Institute of Peking
University provides a likely map of the capital's population
demographic in the coming decade.
Beijing's current population is about 15 million.
Of the predicted population in 20 years, 12 percent will be
considered aged, and up 13 percent will be younger people, the
report said, highlighting there could be challenges for the labor
and social services sector to support such a population.
The report, the result of three years research, should help the
municipal government plan for policy adjustments in areas including
social welfare, education, housing, and medical services.
"Actually, the unveiling of the report is just a stopover before
we embark on a series of new and related research based on this
report," Pang Lihua, a demographer and one of the contributors to
the report, told China Daily.
Statistics show the city's birth rate has been slightly lower
than the death rate in previous years, with a narrowly higher birth
rate this year and last year caused by couples wanting to have a
child during this auspicious birth year.
But Yang Hui, a researcher with Beijing-based Renmin University
of China, warned that an aging society puts "great pressure" on a
city's medical resources and a "burden" on the workforce.
For the past 50 year, Beijing has witnessed a huge jump in its
residential population from 4.2 million in 1949 to some 15 million
today.
"It was mostly caused by the influx of non-native residents from
all parts of China, including migrant workers, technicians and
those employed by government and State-run organizations," the
report said.
With such rapid economic and social progress, Beijing is
expected to witness an even greater migration of people next year
on the coattails of the Olympics and its many business and job
opportunities, the report said.
(China Daily October 23, 2007)