Rising interest margins to aid bank profits
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Despite concerns over the downside risks of the government clampdown on the property market, analysts said Chinese lenders are likely to maintain stable profits this year on growing interest margins.
The government unveiled a series of measures this month to curb property prices, triggering concerns that the downturn effect will dampen the property market and eventually spill over to the banks and the overall economy.
Many Chinese banks reported or are expected to report a profit surge in the first quarter this year, buoyed by brisk lending to the property sector. Mortgage loans and lending to real estate developers accounted for nearly one-third of the total new loans issued by Chinese lenders during the period.
"Though lending to the property sector will decline for the rest of this year due to the tightening measures, the overall demand for loans is still robust," said Fu Lichun, a banking analyst with Southwest Securities.
He expects bill financing, working capital loans and private sector lending to offset the lending decline in the property sector.
Analysts agreed that the interest margin between lending and deposit rates, which dictate bank profitability, would continue to grow this year.
Bank of China, the nation's third-largest lender by market value that extended nearly 18.2 percent of its total loans to home buyers last year, was the first to lift the interest rate discount it offered to existing mortgage loan borrowers. Analysts expect other lenders to follow suit later.
"Major banks are likely to focus more on corporate lending as this generates more interest income than personal loans," She Minhua, an analyst with Haitong Securities, said.
Banks usually offer a mortgage discount of 15 percent from the benchmark interest rate of 5.5 percent to first homebuyers, while the interest rate for corporate loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized enterprises, could be raised by 10 percent from the benchmark rate, he said.
However, analysts said uncertainties still exist, as it is still too early to gauge the full impact of the tightening measures on the overall economy.
"The outcome that both policymakers and the market do not want to see is a slowdown of the property market as it will have a downturn effect on the economy," said Chen Xi, an analyst with First Capital Securities.
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